Bulwark Intelligence

In Week 19, Nigeria's security situation escalated sharply, maintaining a high risk rating across multiple regions. Total incidents surged 36.7% from 49 in Week 18 to 67, with fatalities rising 142.3% from 52 to 126 deaths driven by intensified bandit attacks in Katsina and Zamfara States, road accidents, and a meningitis outbreak in Sokoto State that killed 34 and hospitalised 254.

Civil unrest saw a slight decline, with protests recorded in Delta State, Abuja, and Ibadan, largely driven by electricity shortages and poor service delivery. Operational hazards also dipped slightly, though road accidents, rainstorms, and windstorms continued to impact lives and property across several states.

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In Week 16, overall security incidents increased marginally by 3.5% compared to the previous week, with 59 incidents recorded. However, fatalities declined sharply, dropping by 88.6% to 44 deaths, suggesting that intensified GSF operations may have disrupted high-casualty events. Kidnapping cases showed a downward trend, with 25 victims recorded, a 19.4% decrease from the prior week, though Benue, Kogi, Zamfara, and Kwara States continued to account for the highest concentration of abductions.

The week saw a notable rise in bandit activity across the North West and North Central regions. In Kwara State, coordinated attacks on multiple communities resulted in 13 individuals kidnapped, with several residents displaced. In Benue State, 15 commuters, including JAMB candidates, were abducted along the Makurdi-Otukpo Highway. A credible threat warning was also issued regarding a reported plan by Boko Haram and ISWAP to attack the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Kuje Prison, and a military detention centre in Niger State.

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