The Das Group

Housing isn’t “unaffordable.” It’s just… rarely been affordable.

The government defines housing as affordable when it costs 30% or less of income.

Look at the data.

We’ve spent most of the last 20 years above that line.

Right now, we’re sitting at around 41% of median income needed to afford the median home (near the higher end of the range).

So yes, this is one of the tougher stretches we’ve seen.

But it’s not unprecedented.

Because at the end of the day, housing doesn’t need to feel “cheap” to function.

It just needs buyers who can stretch… and lenders willing to support it.

That’s why affordability is less about a fixed number and more about what the system can sustain.

Practical takeaways:
👉 Don’t anchor to what housing “should” cost
👉 Underwrite based on today’s reality, not yesterday’s market

The housing market is sending a signal.

Right now, 52.2% of U.S. listings are sitting 60+ days without going under contract.

That’s:
👉 Up from 50.1% a year ago
👉 The highest share since 2019
👉 Roughly $347B in stale inventory

That doesn’t just mean demand is weak.

It means the market is losing speed.

Homes aren’t moving like they used to.

They’re sitting longer, getting repriced, and forcing more discipline on both sides of the table.

That shift matters.

Because when inventory stops clearing, pricing power starts to change.

For buyers, patience starts to matter more.

For sellers, strategy matters more than optimism.

For investors, this is where better entries start to show up.

Practical takeaway:
Watch listings sitting 45–90 days.
That’s often where leverage begins to appear.

The housing market isn’t crashing… it’s freezing.

The pace of U.S. home sales just slowed to levels we haven’t seen since the aftermath of 2008.

Let that sink in.

👉 Existing home sales dropped to a 4.09M annual pace in February, the weakest February since 2009
👉 Mortgage rates around 6% are squeezing affordability
👉 Millions of homeowners are locked into ~3% rates and are simply not moving

So what do you get as a result of all this?

Prices stay high…

But fewer homes actually trade hands.

That’s not a boom.
That’s not a crash.
That’s gridlock.

This market isn’t being driven by fear or greed. It’s being driven by constraints.

People want to move. They just can’t justify the math.

And when movement slows in a system built on transactions, everything downstream starts to feel it.

Real estate doesn’t always break loudly. Sometimes it just… stops moving.

Pay attention to that.