Primary Vision

Is the U.S. now immune to an oil supply shock? Primary Vision breaks this down in this week's Monday Macro View and the answer is more complicated than you'd think. The Boston Fed just calculated the current shock at roughly 33%, yet the employment damage that gutted the economy in the 1970s has essentially vanished since the shale revolution flipped the U.S. from net importer to net exporter. But here's the catch: that same resilience is giving the Fed less cover to hold rates, not more.

The full operator data, policy moves, and monetary implications are all in this week's piece.

TechnipFMC enters 2026 with three questions that will define whether Q1 results translate into a durable story or just a strong quarter.

Subsea 2.0 has been the margin engine but technology advantages have a shelf life, and the question is how long FTI can sustain the pricing power that comes with it before the market catches up.

Offshore project awards are the growth pipeline. 2027 looks constructive on paper, but the gap between operator intentions and final investment decisions in a volatile price environment is wide enough to matter.

And then there's the $30B opportunity pipeline. A number that size generates attention. What converts it from pipeline to backlog is what the Q1 results need to show.

Our full Q1 2026 Perspective breaks down how FTI performed against each of these questions and what the answers mean for the offshore cycle broadly.

Full analysis for subscribers.
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Market Sentiment Tracker is looking at the Hormuz crisis as more than an oil story and the numbers are hard to ignore. The Strait carried 20.9 million barrels a day in early 2025, about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, compared with roughly 7% of global supply hit during the 1973 embargo. Add sticky U.S. inflation, slowing consumer spending, and limited room for policy error, and this starts to look like a much bigger macro shock hiding inside an energy headline. The full piece connects the dots from oil routes to inflation, industry, currencies, and what governments may be forced to rethink next.

https://efracs.primaryvision.co/landing/