Rickus Capital Strategies

What’s happening with the economy as we push through the second half of 2022?

Inflation is the big topic and it will likely cool throughout this year, but the cool-down period will be long and slow and inflation will still very likely be above the Fed’s long run target of 2%.

Improvements in supply chains have started to impact consumer prices. Technically, consumer price changes lagged by four months are 72% correlated with the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Gauge. The good news? Given the improvement in supply chains, inflation pressures should subside.

Learn more on the 2022 economy midyear outlook here: https://view.ceros.com/lpl/midyearoutlook2022/p/2

Did you know that the year after midterm elections has historically been quite strong for stocks? Incredibly, the S&P 500 has been higher a year after EVERY SINGLE midterm election since 1950. That is 18 out of 18 years, with the average gain a year later a very solid 14.5%.

Interestingly, breaking it down by presidential party doesn’t show much difference, up 14.8% under a Republican and 14.5% under a Democrat.

Learn more on the 2022 policy outlook here: https://view.ceros.com/lpl/midyearoutlook2022/p/5