Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

MY GOODNESS! 26" OF RAIN is estimated to have fallen near Cottonport, Louisiana, in the past 24 hours.

This is at least a 1-in-200-year flood event. Flash flood emergency continues for at least 2 hours.

Weird, messy, but potentially dangerous situation setting up for the Gulf Coast states this Monday afternoon. A stalling front is currently producing heavy rainfall across the region. On top of this, a disturbance over NE Mexico (pink box) *may* move out over the extreme-NW Gulf and develop into a tropical storm midweek. (The computer models are mixed on this, but enough of them—including the Euro ensembles—show development that it's worth taking note.) Whatever happens, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi are looking at several days of very heavy rainfall, not to mention wind and storm surge if this disturbance spins up. (The National Hurricane Center gives it a 50% chance.) Just this morning, Hurricane House (in Bay Saint Louis, Mississippi) had 3.8 in (96 mm) in just a few hours, and more rain is on the way. (I can hear the approaching thunder as I type this.) Stay vigilant. We could have our first tropical mischief of the season.

Almost time to begin the 51st Annual Natural Hazards Workshop! Should be a good one.