Wound Up On Weather

Showers skipped most of us last night - ones that developed across Washington Parish moved east while some that developed over Eden Isles moved east skirting the MS Coast. With little activity over land, see a dry AM , but a few showers could pop up in the early afternoon from Folsom to Picayune to Saucier and head south. Not expecting much - 30% chance and should exit by evening. Tomorrow still looks shower free.

Looking at all that deep blue sky this morning, it’s tempting to say that it will be another hot, dry day. BUT look at all the showers and storms offshore which indicates that the atmosphere is unstable and primed for afternoon storms on land. 70-80% chance.

This is the European model forecast of showers for tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon showing scattered ones in the light green areas from Slidell along the immediate MS Gulf Coast to Biloxi with Western St. Tammany and inland areas mostly dry. That agrees with my Thursday afternoon forecast. Monday's pattern should be somewhat similar with showers and storms developing late in the same areas with maybe a few traveling 20 more miles inland.

What didn't work out well from Thursday's forecast was today's rainfall. Radar shows a few small storms over the immediate Gulf Coast, the Rigolets and the marshes of St. Bernard with very little movement. Otherwise -- very spotty and light precipitation because of the mid level cloud cover.

Shower and storm chances below normal (20-30%) through Tuesday. What does happen will begin later in the day, be light, and near the lake and Sound. Highs mid 90s, maybe upper 90s inland. Then… an easterly wave will change our weather starting late Wednesday.

Afternoon showers and storms will increase in Coastal MS and perhaps the Slidell area Wednesday afternoon to about 60%. Highs low to mid 90s.

Thursday and Friday will be wet with numerous showers and storms. Highs mid- upper 80s. There’s a decent chance that the system could be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm, but development will be limited because it will form too close to the MS or SE LA coast before moving inland. Could dump some heavy rain, but too early to say exactly when or where.

Saturday will transition back with higher shower and storm chances to our west. Sunday should be back to normal.

Will return soon and get back into the newsletter writing mode…

Am out of town and unable to write a newsletter due to technical problems. There are no major weather makers in SE Louisiana or Coastal MS. Very much typical summer scattered afternoon storms with amounts and coverage a bit less than normal.

Models indicating trough dropping down into the NE Gulf by next Wednesday increasing shower and storm chances and lowering high temperatures from the low 90’s to upper 80’s. Expect rain chances to stay higher than normal from Wednesday through next Friday.

Also… this trough may leave behind a circulation and we’ll have to watch for tropical development somewhere between our area and Tampa towards the end of next week. Some model runs are showing a slow development and the pattern is somewhat similar to what happened last week off the East Coast of Florida.

Still way too early to say anything else. I’ll be back in town by then, but will keep you posted if anything changes.

Am out of town and have not been able to write my newsletter because of technical problems. It’s probably the Loed telling me I needed a vacation. Here’s what I can tell in a nutshell. ..

Weather Sercice is more aggressive in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances than the models are showing. NWS ramps up chances to 60 percent or more by Friday and holds it there. Models are keeping it at about 40 percent with mostly small amounts through Monday before ramping up the probabilities and amounts.

I side with the models and also think the showers are a bit more likely in inland areas during the afternoon hours.

Also…don’t see anything tropical in the Atlantic in the next 10 days. Flooding in Texas was from an upper air system that picked up moisture from an Eastern Pacific storm, not an Atlantic one.

Storms across Washington Parish, Pearl River and Northern Hancock Counties slowly sagging south and should move through parts of St Tammany in the next few hours. Expect more of the same late tomorrow afternoon.

Geesh…when you can’t squeeze more than one dry day out of an upper air pattern that favors suppression, you know you’re in for a wet summer. Storms breaking out in North Slidell and Pearl River heading NW towards Western St Tammmany. See no reason to believe we won’t see scattered activity tomorrow afternoon as well.

Radar shows very few showers this morning compared to yesterday and the sky has a light hazy appearance with only a few puffy cumulus floating above the haze. This means shower chances are much less for today, tomorrow, and Saturday. Not as confident about Sunday - details later in my evening newsletter.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms starting shortly after noon this Father’s Day. Whenever you see showers offshore in the early morning with motion towards land you know conditions are ripe for them to form over land during daytime heating. Don’t see any improvement to the wet pattern we are having until Thursday.

Thunderstorms starting to fire across a wide section of the Northshore - some with guaty winds and small hail. Expect greater coverage than yesterday - movement is due east so not expecting as much on the southshore. maybe 70 percent of us on the Northshore and Coastal MS will see some rain and there will be a few places that receive a couple of inches. Will produce a newsletter update this evening.

Dark skies in the morning got you thinking that it might rain? This might bother any artists who follow me, but....Color alone is not a good indicator of whether a cloud holds rain.

Stratocumulus clouds like these are too thin when compared with afternoon cumulonimbus that rise to great heights. "Stratocus" formed this morning when hot air traveled over the cooler Lake and Sound waters. Since the cooler air coming in contact with these waters has less capacity to hold the water v***r, the excess water condenses out to form liquid cloud droplets. That's the stratocus that you see low in the sky. The clouds could not grow because they were trapped under an inversion with warm, dry air aloft. These clouds tend to thin out by afternoon as the lowest layer slowly warms.

Morale of the story: If in doubt, check out the radar. Also, check out my "Wound Up On Weather" newsletter at www.woundup.carrd.co