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Residential Market Commentary - Supply and Demand Favouring Buyers

Feb 9, 2026
First National Financial LP

"Canada’s housing market continues to tilt in favour of buyers, according to a recent report from one of the country’s big banks. But the report also suggests buyers are still being cautious.

The report focuses, mainly, on Canada’s largest markets. It notes that demand is down sharply in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley while Toronto and Montreal also continue to soften. Across the prairies, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Saskatoon are posting particularly weak results but Calgary and Regina are among the few outliers showing an increase in buying activity.

Toronto recorded a, seasonally adjusted, 10% drop in prices between December and January. Based on the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Home Price Index (HPI) prices declined 8.0% compared to a year ago.

In Vancouver seasonally adjusted sales crashed by 30% from December to January, cancelling-out three months of gains. The HPI shows a 5.7%, year-over-year price decline in January.

In Calgary a 7.3% jump in sales between December and January was not enough to overtake new listings and draw down inventories. Prices are down 4.7% from January of 2025.

The report notes that severe winter weather may have had an influence on buyer activity. It also points out that market patterns may have been influenced by an anomaly in the calendar.

“January 2026 contained more working days compared to a year ago, while December’s working day count aligned unusually with January’s—a rare occurrence that likely exaggerated trends.” "

September 17, 2025 is the next Bank of Canada Meeting. All eyes on the date. Anticipation of a Rate Cut. This affects Variable Rate Mortgages that are based on the Prime Rate.
Today bond yields are moving down. This results in a lower fixed rate.

Where do you think rates will go?
Share your comments.

"Residential Market Commentary - Tariffs trigger economic unease
Feb 24, 2025
First National Financial LP

The Canadian economy is facing a permanent “negative structural change” if threatened U.S. tariffs become a long-term reality.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem issued the warning during a recent speech to business groups in Mississauga. He also cautioned that an all-out trade war with the Americans would put the central bank in the position of fighting contradictory problems with the one, main weapon it has: interest rate (monetary) policy.

The Bank would be left trying to limit tariff-fuelled inflation by keeping interest rates high while, at the same time, trying to stimulate economic growth, which is usually done by lowering interest rates.

The BoC estimates that sweeping, 25% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods could leave Canada in a serious recession with virtually zero economic growth over the next two years.

While Canada’s exports – mainly energy, autos, aluminium and steel – would take major hits, new home construction here would also suffer significant shocks.

Retaliatory Canadian tariffs on everything from appliances to plumbing fixtures to plastic building materials would drive up prices for builders and those costs would be passed on to buyers. This would also be the case for the home improvement and renovation sector in the resale home market.

Broad economic uncertainty created by tariff threats, and the resulting fears about jobs, inflation and interest rates could have wide ranging negative impacts on the housing industry, which relies on confidence and stability to generate market activity."

Tariffs, Inflation and Interest Rates
We are in for an interesting year ahead!

Jan 27, 2025

"First National Financial LP
The latest inflation reading from Statistics Canada would usually send a clear signal that the Bank of Canada will go ahead with another interest rate cut. The headline inflation rate, also known as the Consumer Price Index, for December came in at 1.8%, down one notch from 1.9% in November. That is solidly within the Bank’s preferred range of 1.0% to 3.0% and just slightly below the 2.0% target rate.

However, the key reason for the decline is the federal government’s GST holiday that started on December 14 and runs until February 15.

The BoC has said it will “look through” the effects of the tax holiday when making its rate decisions but it is widely expected there will be another quarter-point cut at this week’s setting. The Bank is also saying it intends to slow the pace of rate cuts as it works to manage core inflation. It averaged 2.5% in December but it has been facing upward pressure over the past three months. Good economic growth and employment have also reduced the need for urgent interest rate cuts.

The big question, though, is: What will the Americans do?

The new administration in Washington continues to threaten damaging, 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods entering the U.S. Penalties of that magnitude could conceivably push Canada’s economy into recession and give the BoC more latitude for rate cuts.

So far the tariffs have not happened and there are increasing signals coming out of the White House that the administration is backing away from the worst of its threats. Official announcements are scheduled for February 1."