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As the Chinese economy slows, its foreign aid policy, including development initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), could be impacted. This potential slowdown in Chinese development financing presents an unexpected opportunity for the US and EU-led initiatives, such as the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy. They can provide more transparent, accountable, and sustainable forms of assistance, focusing on both hard and soft infrastructure, while avoiding the debt and data traps associated with China's approach. By stepping up, liberal democracies can ensure that vulnerable nations are not left behind and that future development assistance positively impacts those who need it most. latest SecDev - now on Substack!

The Uncertainty of Chinese Aid The global consequences of declining Chinese aid to the Global south

One third of ’s critical mineral and wealth lies below the rainforest. These assets bring the promise of wealth but also existential risks. One is the so-called “resource curse”. The other is how to unearth and refine them without razing forests and degrading biodiversity (ensuring locals benefit) and imperilling the global climate.

Consider that to achieve the climate goals in the 2015 , the world will need to quadruple—yes, quadruple—mineral production through 2040, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Surging demand will especially affect Latin America, which has 40 percent of global copper reserves as well as a large share of the world’s cobalt and nickel.

Just three countries— , , and —control two-thirds of the global supply of . The pressure to mine rare earths will grow as well, especially as , the world’s largest producer, moves to restrict exports and as other countries work to lessen their strategic dependence on Beijing.

How Brazil manages a vast expansion of its mining industry and handles the attendant environmental, social, and other negative consequences could therefore shape the rules and red lines of an expanding global mining sector for years to come. Some reflections from The SecDev Group’s Robert Muggah in Foreign Policy this weekend.

Will Brazil Destroy the Amazon to Save the Climate? Brazil’s mineral wealth could power the energy transition, but mining is a very dirty business.