Libra Chan - Real Estate Agent

MAY 2026 MARKET STATS

In May 2026, GTA home sales rose 6.3% year-over-year while average prices dipped 4.6% compared to last year. Both sales and prices improved from April, and active listings sat 13.3% below May 2025, pointing to a market that keeps tightening as spring turns to summer.

Semi-detached and detached held up best, down 2.9% and 4.7% from last year on scarce supply and steady end-user demand. Condos and townhouses lagged at 6.4% and 7.1% below, with the condo market's heavy supply a likely drag. Month over month, semis led at +3.3%.

Buyers still hold some negotiating room with average days on market at 42, up from 39 last year. With the Bank of Canada steady at 2.25% and pent-up demand on the sidelines, firming sales against shrinking supply could nudge prices higher through the summer.

In April 2026, GTA home sales rose 7% year-over-year while average prices dipped 4.9% compared to last year. Compared to March, both sales and prices improved, and active listings came in below April 2025 levels, pointing to gradually tightening conditions heading into spring.

Detached and condo apartment sales led the year-over-year rebound, up 9.2% and 9.1% respectively. Prices fell across all types, with townhouses seeing the sharpest decline at 7.9% below last year and detached holding up best at 4.1% below, likely reflecting a buyer pool that is less constrained by payment sensitivity.

Buyers still hold negotiating power with average days on market at 43, up from 37 last year. If buyer confidence firms and trade uncertainty eases, sidelined demand could start moving faster, but with rates holding steady near current levels and no clear path lower, price recovery is likely to be gradual.

Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 2.25%, warning future decisions are clouded by uncertainty

Bank of Canada holds interest rate at 2.25%

In February 2026, sales and average prices were lower than last year, but higher than January. That month-over-month lift is common after the winter slowdown.

February’s pickup showed more homes sold across all property types. Semis had the largest month-over-month price jump. They may be worth watching as a possible “upgrade compromise” with more space and privacy than a condo or townhome without the full detached price.

As spring activity builds, expect well-priced, desirable, low-friction homes to keep selling. If buyer confidence improves and competition heats up, it may show up first in townhomes and semis, where many budget-sensitive buyers can still upgrade.

In January 2026, sales and prices trended lower compared to December and last year, which is consistent with buyers remaining quite sensitive in a high-rate environment

Detached prices held up best, likely reflecting a higher-income buyer pool that was less payment-sensitive with fewer true substitutes in the low-rise market. Even so, year-over-year price declines have improved relative value and helped support demand where buyers are ready to act.

Conditions remain buyer-leaning, with more active listings and fewer sales than a year ago. As spring supply typically builds into March, watch whether demand keeps pace as buyers look to the Bank of Canada for clearer direction on borrowing costs.

Bank of Canada holding overnight interest rate at 2.25%

In December 2025, prices continued to soften with year-over-year declines, reinforcing a buyer-leaning market. Typical December seasonality was further amplified by affordability constraints and cautious buyer sentiment.

Townhomes were the only segment to post month-over-month price growth, perhaps driven by first-time and move-up buyers seeking better value than detached homes with more space than condos. Detached homes showed greater resilience, while condos faced ongoing price pressure from weaker investor demand.

Buyers continued to hold leverage due to elevated inventory, while sellers adjusted with more realistic pricing. Confidence remains fragile amid economic uncertainty, with rate cuts and improved employment expected to be key drivers as the market moves toward the spring selling season.