FSW Asset Management

Russian rouble dips to 100 to dollar as Trump declares election win

MOSCOW: The Russian rouble briefly weakened to 100 against the dollar on Wednesday as Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, a result that could push the US currency higher.

💵💶The Fed's interest rate cut may weaken market demand for the dollar, creating opportunities for the euro to recover. Meanwhile, the ECB's aggressive moves to tackle inflation and promote economic growth will further enhance the euro's appeal.

💡Seize the opportunity💡: As the eurozone economy picks up, investors can capitalize on this trend by adjusting their portfolios to take advantage of the euro's appreciation.

📣📣Our analyst, Robert McKellar Doggett, will provide you with flexible foreign exchange strategies that can help you profit from volatility and lock in the optimal profit scenario.

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🇺🇸 With polls showing a 49%-49% deadlock, Harris and Trump ramp up efforts in battleground states. Harris is rallying Black voters in Detroit, and Trump is energizing supporters in Pennsylvania to sway last-minute votes.
⚡️ With the US election neck-and-neck, over 20 central banks, including the Fed, BOE, and Riksbank, are set to adjust rates this week—likely cuts in the US and UK, while Brazil is expected to hike by 0.5%.
🇨🇳 China’s lawmakers are set to approve a fiscal package exceeding ¥1 trillion ($140B) this week, but doubts remain on its impact as US election results and potential Trump tariffs loom.
🛢OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, have extended voluntary oil production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until December 2024, reaffirming their commitment to compliance and additional adjustments.
has reportedly cut dozens of employees from its Metaverse unit as it shifts resources to A.I. This follows other tech giants like Meta, which saw a $4.4 billion loss in Q3 2023, and Microsoft, which cut around 100 Metaverse staff earlier this year.

Scott F. Reddy, CFA®
Senior Investment Manager, CFA Chartered Analyst

Scott F. Reddy was a Senior Investment Advisor at Biltmore Capital Advisors and currently serves as Regional Director for the European market. Scott is future-focused and is responsible for the firm’s long-term vision and strategies related to the client experience.
He works with clients to help them navigate the financial markets with confidence. Scott knows that it is important for clients to enjoy their wealth, and that can only come from a strong belief in their investment approach. In joining FSW Group, Scott provides clients with customized advice on all aspects of wealth, with a focus on asset allocation and investment manager selection.

Previously, Scott worked at Berman Capital Advisors and before that at Merrill Lynch’s Private Bank and Investment Group. At Merrill Lynch, he focused on building and maintaining relationships with ultra-high net worth families. His responsibilities included economic research, customized portfolio construction, and fundamental investment analysis.

He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®) designation and is a member of the Atlanta Association of Financial and Investment Professionals. As a CFA® charterholder, Scott has extensive expertise in portfolio management and helping to design portfolio strategies to help clients achieve a wide range of financial goals.

Robert McKellar Doggett, CFA®
FSW strategic partner, CFA chartered analyst

Robert has over 20 years of wealth management experience. He has a diverse background from advisory to leadership positions, having served at all levels of industry leadership. Prior to joining FSW; Robert began his career at Morgan Stanley, where he honed his skills in multiple advisory and leadership positions, and served as a supervisor for the team.

Robert is the Director of Investment Strategy at FSW Group, responsible for gathering information, conducting research, and analyzing assets for inclusion in client portfolios. His primary responsibilities include assisting with portfolio asset allocation decisions and manager due diligence, with an interest in macroeconomic indicators and statistical modeling.

Robert previously served as a Wealth Strategist at JPMorgan Chase, where he was responsible for developing and implementing a goal-based planning framework for the Private Bank. He served as a Denver Investment Specialist at JPMorgan Chase Private Bank, advising clients. At JPMorgan Chase, Robert advised clients on strategic asset allocation decisions and opportunistic investing in both public and private markets

Robert enjoys understanding the economy and markets, and helping advisors develop investment strategies for their clients. Robert received a bachelor's degree in finance from the University of Minnesota and completed the CFA®/Harvard Investment Management Program.

Robert holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA), Financial Risk Manager (FRM), and Quantitative Finance certifications. He is also a member of the Atlanta Financial Analysts Society and the Atlanta Chapter of the CAIA Association.

John Miles Abernethy

Managing Director, Chief Technology Officer
John serves as Managing Director and Chief Technology Officer for FSW Group of Companies, where he leads the company’s technology and digital transformation strategy. He is currently focused on delivering a more digital client experience, enhancing investment insights through enhanced data and analytics, and improving operational efficiency through digitalization.

John has held director and executive positions at a number of financial and investment firms, including technology leadership, investment, and digital transformation roles. Prior to joining FSW, Algreen served as Executive General Manager of Janus Henderson Investors and modernized the digital capabilities of the combined company. Prior to Janus, he served as Chief Technology Officer at Markit Group, overseeing all technology aspects of the Market Digital division. John also spent over 10 years at III Associates, a fixed income hedge fund, as a trader, portfolio manager, and head of the technology and analytics group.

Paul holds a bachelor’s degree in aeronautical and astronautical engineering from MIT and an executive MBA from Boston University’s School of Management.

𝟑/𝟏𝟏/𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐠𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲: 𝐔𝐒 𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐚 𝐠𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐭

From the current 4-hour technical perspective, we continue to pay attention to the support of 2720-2728 below, and focus on the important support of 2700-2705. Pay attention to the suppression of 2758-2763 above. We will continue to operate in the range. After all, the market can only fluctuate in the range before the US election. Pay attention to the situation of the US election and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the trading session, so please pay attention to it in time.

Gold operation strategy:

1. Gold rebounds to 2760-66 line short, stop loss 2773, target 2728-30 line; break to see 2705 line;

2. Gold falls back to 2715-2720 line without breaking long, fall back to 2705-08 line to cover long, stop loss 2697, target 2763-65 line;

Preliminary estimate of GDP - Q3 2024

In the third quarter of 2024 the seasonally and calendar adjusted, chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was stable with respect to the previous quarter and increased by 0.4 per cent over the same quarter of previous year.

The third quarter of 2024 has had three working days more than the previous quarter and one more compared to the same quarter of previous year.

The quarter on quarter change is the result of a decrease of value added in both agriculture, forestry and fishing and in industry, whereas the contribution of services was positive. From the demand side, there is a positive contribution by the domestic component (gross of change in inventories) and a negative one by the net export component.

The carry-over annual GDP growth for 2024 is equal to 0.4%.

‘World’s most accurate economist’ predicts Trump victory in 2024 presidential election

The “world’s most accurate economist” is predicting Donald Trump will win the presidency and that Republicans are likely to take full control of Congress on Nov. 5.

Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, also says a Trump win could boost the economy in the short term but poses longer-term complications, particularly with the soaring deficit.

“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] victory [2] clean sweep,” Barraud wrote on X.

De-Dollarization: The Spirit Is Willing, the BRICS Is Still Weak

The desire to unseat the dollar as the global reserve currency is strong, but it’s easier said than done. And it doesn't appear the BRICS bloc is quite up to the task - yet.

Russia, in particular, has pushed hard for the BRICS nations to create alternatives to the dollar-dominated global financial system, but the willingness of other BRICS nations to push aggressively in that direction seems to be limited, at least for the time being.

That’s not to say the BRICS fall summit in Kazan, Russia, rejected de-dollarization. The idea remains very much on the table.

However, it appears getting there won’t be as quick and easy as the Russian delegation may like. As a report by the South China Morning Post put it, “Few countries in the grouping seem ready to ditch the U.S. dollar despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent efforts to encourage an alternative system of payment among members.”

Japan’s Job Market Tightens in Positive Sign for Wages, BOJ

Japan’s labor market tightened in September, indicating sustained pressure on companies to raise wages ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting this week.

The job-to-applicant ratio edged up to 1.24 from 1.23 in August, meaning that there were 124 jobs offered for every 100 applicants, the labor ministry reported Tuesday. Economists had forecast no change from 1.23.

A separate report from the ministry of internal affairs showed that the jobless rate decreased to 2.4% in September, falling to the lowest since January. The number of workers rose by 270,000 from a year ago, while those without jobs decreased by 90,000.

The tight labor market is a positive environment for the central bank as it prepares for its policy meeting concluding Thursday.

Higher demand for workers will pressure companies to hike salaries to retain them, potentially feeding into the virtuous cycle between prices and wages — a goal that the bank seeks as it mulls its next interest rate hike.