TransGraph Consulting

reported Malaysia Apr'26 stocks at 2.31 MMT higher by 1.86% M-o-M slightly above market expectations of around 2.25 MMT. Though stock has improved marginally, production witnessed a significant rise by nearly 18.4% M-o-M. This report is considered to be neutral to bearish.

However, the ongoing geopolitical situation is expected to keep the market highly volatile, potentially impacting price movements in the near term.

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Forecast vs Actual - right on track.

Back in Jan’26, we projected a dip toward USc 13.61 followed by a rally to USc 16.50 and ICE Sugar No #11 (1M Futures) USc/lbs prices moved largely in line with our forecast. Those who acted on our report witnessed significant savings in procurement for the quarter, while producer hedgers were protected from the short covering rally that began post mid-March’26.

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Let's celebrate the arrival of Ugadi with renewed hope and optimism. May this auspicious beginning bring abundance, prosperity, and new opportunities. Wishing you a year filled with growth, success, and achievements.

Is the dry chilli market entering a tight supply phase? Early signals from market arrivals suggest tightening supply conditions, while the next price move may depend heavily on China’s import demand and arrival momentum in March.

Understanding these market dynamics is essential for making strategic procurement decisions in a volatile commodity market.

Subscribe to our reports, https://lnkd.in/gDtrbZvC, to access the full detailed analysis of the dry chilli market, including arrivals, export demand, and price outlook.

Our February outlook anticipated an initial upside move followed by a corrective decline and the market unfolded largely in line with expectations. In volatile soft commodity markets, structured forecasting transforms uncertainty into actionable clarity.

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