LAPIN Reform

The Implication of Insecurity on the 2023 General Election

As Nigeria prepares for 2023 one of the major challenges to struggle with is the issue of insecurity. Violence has been recorded across the country’s six geopolitical zones, further dividing it along ethnic, religious and political lines. The North Eastern region remains troubled with terrorist killings by Boko Haram and the Islamic States in West Africa Province (ISWAP) even though Nigerian authorities claim they have been weakened. According to June 2022 UN reports, the terror groups still carry out armed attacks, r**e and robbery against vulnerable groups in the North East. The North West is another living anarchy based on the activities of deadly bandits who rob, r**e, kill and kidnap. A 2021 report on banditry in the North West recorded 2,735 stolen animals, 91 victims of abductions and payment of over €77,500 in ransom by the abductees’ families and friends.

Also, in the first quarter of 2022, 76 incidents were reported in the region, including r**e, assaults, cattle theft and kidnappings. At the moment, the condition is not declining. Terrorists, ethnic militias and bandits besiege the North Central region. In the first quarter of 2022, the North Central had its share of terrorist killings, with a total death of 16 persons. South West Nigeria is not spared from violence with the recent massacre of worshippers in Owo, Ondo State. Kidnapping is a growing and increasingly “profitable” for its perpetrators in the South-South and South East of Nigeria, and the additional weekly lockdown imposed by different factions of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), a separatist group operating in the region. Whilst incidents like the prison break at Kuje, on the outskirts of Abuja, have raised further concerns about the possibility of insecurity worsening, some of these groups target the facilities of the election management body.

The growth and activeness of Islamist insurgent groups in the North-West is a significant and worrisome development. The brutal modus operandi of these groups, along with their collaboration with bandits, has significant implications for the upcoming 2023 elections. In previous off-cycle elections in the North-West, they have been associated with abductions of INEC staff and materials, killing of elected officials and making the conduct of elections extremely difficult. On June 25, 2022, Ansaru (breakaway terror group from Boko Haram) in Birnin Gwari LGA of Kaduna state banned any form of political campaigning in the area. They specifically mentioned villages like Damari, Saulawa, Dogondawa as ‘no political campaign zones’.

Furthermore, the ineffectual response of security agencies to attacks on these communities has led to the creation of self-help vigilante groups and ethnic militias. Formed as a response mechanism aimed at reducing insecurity, some groups are being used and supported by states. There is a strong chance these groups will be instrumentalised to perpetrate political violence, a familiar feature of elections in Nigeria. Holding credible polls in an environment that guarantees the security of voters and Independent National Electoral Commission personnel will be a major challenge.

The above scenery of Nigeria’s security environment in the 2023 general elections holds the potential for far-reaching implications for the democratic process and even national stability. We consider a few possibilities below

One of the possibilities is that elections may be inconclusive given that criminal elements in some areas may order residents not to participate or even impose a lockdown during the election. The IPOB, for instance, has a history of successfully imposing lockdowns in the South East. The Ansaru has recently banned political activities in parts of Kaduna State. Such disruptions are possible given that less well-organised thugs had successfully disrupted voter registration.

Voter oppression and intimidation, during the coming elections, the criminals will likely work with the notion that the state does not do enough resources to prevent or repel attacks against her electoral institutions. They would anticipate that polling stations in most parts of the country may not be well protected and probably unleash mayhem in any ones they target.

The prevalence of fear would also affect voter turnout. The high demand for voter registration may mean nothing for actual voting if there are obvious dangers for voters and also due to the lack of security guarantees, it is doubtful that the election could have sufficient ad-hoc staff to cover the elections, particularly in the less protected electoral districts scattered across the country.

Reference

Hassane Kone, ANALYSIS: Banditry in Northwest Nigeria spreading to Niger, destroying livelihoods (premiumtimesng.com)May 16, 2022.

Ibrahim H.W, Ansaru terrorists ban political activities in Birnin Gwari emirate in Kaduna - Vanguard News (vanguardngr.com) June 27,2022.

‘Nigeria: crisis in northeast will worsen without urgent help, says OCHA’Nigeria: crisis in northeast will worsen without urgent help, says OCHA | | 1UN News June 21, 2022.

RESCUING NIGERIA

The country’s present situation has warranted Nigeria’s placement by Fund for Peace in the top 20 on the failed state index for the 6th consecutive time. Even, a former Nigerian Head of State, Olusegun Obasanjo, reiterated that Nigeria is fast becoming a failed state. Rather than take bold steps to rescue the nation from the brink, the ruling elite seems to live in denial and are less enthusiastic about taking critical steps to fix the nation’s predicaments.

This week’s newsletter highlights indices to suggest how close Nigeria is to being a failed state. It also outlines some solution ingredients to rescue the country from state collapse. Whilst understanding why Nigeria is profiled as a state at the risk of failure, it becomes imperative to outline the features of a failed state. According to the Fund for Peace (FFP), the fundamental attributes of a failed state include a government’s loss of physical control over its territory and use of the instrument of violence, loss of legitimate authority to make decisions, and loss of stability to fully interact with others as a member of the international community.

In Nigeria, the objective realities indicate that the government is losing grip of physical control of its territory and the instrument of violence. From late 2014 to the start of 2015, Boko Haram had seized around 20 Local Government Areas (Reuters, 2015). The seeming unfettered weapons inflow into Nigeria through the porous land and sea borders indicate loss of monopoly over instrument violence. This situation accounts for the audacity of violence in various parts of the country. In the North East, the Nigerian government has been fighting Boko Haram insurgents for more than a decade. Since the group emerged in 2009, it has reportedly claimed 35,000 lives (Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, 2022). The group has reportedly claimed responsibilities for several mass abductions, including the 276 Chibok schoolgirls in Borno State in 2014, 110 Dapchi schoolgirls in Yobe State in 2018, 317 Jangebe schoolgirls in Zamfara state in March 2021, and more than 300 Kankare schoolboys in Katsina State in 2020 (The Guardian News). All over the country, kidnapping for ransom is becoming a sort of cottage industries for idle but able-bodied youth in Nigeria.

In the oil-rich but impoverished Niger Delta region, extortion through pipeline sabotage has become legendary. In 2019, International Maritime Bureau (IMB’s) Piracy Reporting Centre logged 44 crew abductions off Nigeria’s coast. The number of cases increased in 2020 to 62. There has been an increasing wave of attacks on the security formations in the country. No fewer than 150 security agents, comprising the Police, Soldiers, Navy, NDLEA officers, NSCDC and prison wardens, have been killed in different part of the country within the first half of 2022 (Premium Times 2022)

Apart from physical insecurity, Nigeria is at risk of becoming a failed state by its present socio-economic predicaments. With 95.1 million Nigerians projected to be living in extreme poverty by the end of 2022 (A Better Future for all Nigerians: 2022 Nigeria Poverty Assessment) . As a
direct corollary of the challenging economic conditions in the country, many Nigerians have resorted to migrating abroad for succour. But this has engendered social relation dilemma for these economic migrants. The social relations between many of these diaspora Nigerians at the individual level have been frustrating. Inhuman, cruel, degrading and detestable treatments are meted on them in different countries such as Malaysia, Oman, India, U.A.E, China, Qatar and even African countries. In recent times, Nigerians have been refused entry into U.A.E despite having a valid Visa. On April 2, 2021, Cape Verde reportedly barred three Nigerians from entry its territory while allowing white foreign travellers. Rescuing the Nation from the brim of becoming a failed state, the following solution ingredients are paramount.

Political participation: Patriotic Nigerians, especially those less tainted by politics of extraction and ethnonationalism, should mobilize to take over power through the ballot box come 2023 from the crop of the ruling elite who have been re-circulating themselves with the same mantra. The 2023 general elections may be the last crucial stepping stone to turn the page on the nation’s political history of poor leadership.

Restoration of citizens’ confidence: Effective security governance and stability are essential for restoring citizens’ confidence in the state. The pillar for effective security governance and stability are strong state institutions. To achieve this, it is critical to focus on rethinking, rebuilding and strengthening legal frameworks and institutions.

Economic empowerment schemes: The government, in collaboration with the private sector organisations and international development agencies,needs to focus attention on the improvement of the welfare of the citizens through poverty alleviation, employment generation and infrastructural development. This policy will deplete the army of youth readily available for engagement in illicit businesses and violent activities within and outside the country.

Peace education: Due to low capacity of the state to manage conflicts and ensure fairness to all, a culture of “might is right” seems to have been entrenched in the minds of many Nigerians. To address this, relevant stakeholders, including civil society organisations, need to undertake serious efforts to de-escalate tension, facilitating reconciliation and peacemaking. To actualise this, the stakeholders must cultivate a cordial and harmonious relationship deliberately.

Getting Things Done II : Investing in Human Capital

Nigeria is ranked 168 out of 173 countries on the World Bank Human Capital Index (HCI) released in 2020. (The index measures countries’ contribution of health and education to the productivity of the next generation of their workers). The bottom 20 positions on the index apart from Yemen are occupied predominantly by Nigeria and other African countries. This has been the trend since the first publication of the HCI in 2018, resulting Jim Yong Kim, the then President of the World Bank Group cautioning that African countries are in the ‘Red Zone’ because of their low investments in human capital development. For instance, Nigeria has only spent less than 2 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on education in the past 10 years, according to TRCN (This day Newspaper, 2022), the persistent ASUU strike that transition’s from one administration to another lends credence to this claim. The present situation of the health sector in Nigeria leaves a lot to be desired, as COVID-19 exposed the gap in the healthcare delivery system. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causes and impact of low human capital development in Nigeria and proffers recommendations to reverse the trend.

Nigeria is one of the most naturally endowed countries in the world with abundant mineral resources, arable land, rain forests, networks of rivers and waterways, a large population of fairly educated’ youths, etc. However, it is incapacitated by a devastating “oil disease” case and predatory, rent-seeking elites. Nigeria has been entrapped at the ‘bottom billion’ on the global scale having been debased by corruption, poor funding of pro-poor programs, policy inconsistencies, etc.

Most of the sectors of the economy have performed badly. The education system is in the doldrums and unable to produce students with requisite and competitive skills. Nigeria loses about $500 million to Europe and American universities. Similarly, Nigeria’s public health system is dysfunctional and the country loses about $1 billion to health tourism. The country records under-five-year infant mortality of 157 deaths for every 1,000 live births in contrast to eight deaths for every 1,000 live births in the USA and 133 for every 1,000 live births in Liberia; a country still recovering from the ravaging effect of 14 years of Civil war.

In the midst of these failures lies rising violent conflicts, insurgencies, organized crime, unemployment, mass migration etc. Seven out of 10 Nigerians are willing to leave their country if given the opportunity, according to a report published in 2021 by the Africa Polling Institute, same report showed that appropriately three out of 10 Nigerians fell under the same category in 2019. This begs the question of what went wrong and what can be done?.

It is imperative to note that poverty and conflicts are closely interconnected, thus, rising violence and insecurity in the country cannot be disassociated from weakening governance and economic performance.

Various efforts by governments in Nigeria to alleviate poverty have failed on account of poor planning and management, inadequate funding, uncoordinated efforts, prevalent corruption, etc. Most pro-poor programs and even international donor-assisted poverty reduction programs have not fared better.

Below are measures needed to halt Nigeria’s deepening socio-economic crisis of mass poverty:
The economically disadvantaged, who are to benefit from the program, should be
involved in their design and implementation to minimize failures.

1. Nigeria needs new business models for funding and managing education and health institutions to ensure optimal delivery and claw back the funds Nigerians currently spend outside the country on education and healthcare.

2. Programs initiated for economically disadvantaged persons should be insulated from elite apprehension, and political patrimonialism by linking to outcomes.

3. Social welfare policies should be embedded in Nigeria’s human capital development programs, human security programs, poverty alleviation, employment generation, etc.

4. Institutional resetting of Nigeria’s public service to become a more modern, and practice-driven bureaucracy. Nigeria’s human capital development cannot be guaranteed by existing dysfunctional institutions

5. The economically disadvantaged, who are to benefit from the program, should be involved in their design and implementation to minimize failures

Nigeria needs to rethink its investments in human capital development if it is ever going to find its way toward sustainable development. This effort would require a wholistic approach with emphasis on input from the proposed beneficiaries and relevant stakeholders. Improved human capital development will help reduce incidents of insecurity and violence

As the pandemic has threatened office activities and processes across the world, it is important to transition from bricks and mortar to clicks and portals in no time.

By implication, it is also important to create a scalable life-long digital skills learning scheme to accommodate skill upgrade for efficient workplace productivity especially in sectors of essentialities as the educational sector.

We appreciate the sensitivity of Tetfund to Workforce Upskilling and Adaptive Strategies in this regard.

As the physical, environmental, socio-economic and systemic tolerance changes in the new normal, it is important to understand technology and digitization as the next big strategy for economic stability and workplace optimal productivity.

Trust Fund Interventions in form of Technology enhancement in tertiary institutions would go a long way to increase transparency, knowledge management and effective learning forms in the educational system.

Today, we looked at Adaptation Strategies to the new roles and activities in the New normal, leadership in a digital world, survival codes and prioritizing digital and socioeconomic skills; all geared towards increased productivity and sustainability of the education trust fund in the emerging world order. It's been so engaging in all of these sessions.