Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi

America’s Global Agenda and Two Wars - Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi

(January 2025): The world will soon witness a transfer of power in the United States when Donald Trump will replace Joe Biden as the President. This is not simply a change from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party but Trump’s personality and political management are different from that of Biden. Trump has a noisy and unpredictable personality with a focus on the slogan “America First.” He promised in his election campaign to restore America’s superiority in the global system and bring a quick end to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. These two tasks conflict at the practical level. These two wars go to a lower priority if the new administration continues to focus on containing China, keeping Russia under pressure, protection of its interests in Asia-Pacific, and seeking greater European contribution for the security of Europe.

The war between Ukraine and Russia has been going on since February 2022. The major reason that this war has continued for such a long period of time is the military and diplomatic support of the United States and NATO to Ukraine. For all practical purposes, it has become a war between the U.S./NATO and Russia through a proxy, i.e., Ukraine. This has caused human and material losses to both Ukraine and Russia, although the losses of Ukraine are higher and Russia has captured its territory in the east and south, going back to the pre-latest-war period. The outgoing Biden administration has announced a new aid package for Ukraine in its last month to make it difficult for the new administration to pull out of American commitment to Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Though the Trump team shares the broad features of the Ukraine-Russia policy of the Biden administration and views Russia as an adversary country along with China, President-elect Trump has talked of ending this war at the earliest. He has not outlined the strategy to achieve this objective. If the policies of the Biden administration continue, the prospects of an early end of this war are dim. This war has created economic and security pressures on Russia but these pressures are not expected to adversely affect its options for pursuing an active global diplomacy and continuation of its policy of opposition to NATO’s formal entrance into Russia’s bordering states.

The other war that the new Trump administration will be addressing is the Gaza-Israel War which has been going on since October 2023. Israel has a decisive military edge in the region and it also enjoys the support of the U.S., the UK and Germany; France is Israel’s reluctant supporter. This enabled Israel to assert its military primacy not only in the Gaza area but also in South Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. It has weakened the radical forces like Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis in Yemen. Iran is under pressure from Israel, although its defiant mood is noteworthy. The collapse of the Bashar-al-Asad regime in Syria is a helpful development for Israel. To avail of the current uncertainties in Syria, Israel has been targeting Syria’s military installations and ammunition storages to weaken it further. The new Syrian administration is in no mood of picking up any conflict with Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah, despite their setbacks, are challenging Israel vigorously. Iran is the only country left in the Middle East that stands for a tough posture towards Israel. All other states like Libya, Syria, Iraq have been undermined by the major powers that support Israel. Most other Middle Eastern states have either established peace with Israel or pursue a timid policy towards Israel.

Israel’s brutal military action in Gaza is to annihilate the Palestinians living in Gaza, total destruction of the Hamas organization and damage to property, infrastructure and facilities for normal living to such an extent that the area does not recover for at least twenty to twenty-five years. The UN General Assembly has passed a resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza but, as major Western powers do not support immediate ceasefire, Israel pursues its inhuman military policies.

The major dilemma for the Trump Administration is how to bring an end to the war in Gaza while continuing to support the security of Israel which is a permanent feature of American foreign policy in the Middle East. Can the new administration mobilize support within the U.S. for an immediate ceasefire and supply of humanitarian assistance and medical support for those who are still alive in Gaza?

The major dilemma for the new Trump administration is going to be how to project America’s military and economic power to sustain its primacy in the international system. The U.S. is still the strongest military power and the biggest economy in the world. However, its capacity to mold the international system to its preferences has declined.

The nature of the international system has changed in the 21st Century. Instead of Washington dominating the international system, different power centers, often described as regional influentials, have emerged in different parts of the world. These regional power centers do not directly challenge the United States, but their autonomous functioning restrains American unilateralism for pursuing its political agenda. The U.S. has to seek the cooperation of regional influentials to pursue its political agenda in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. The rise of these power centers has made the world multipolar at the operational level, which adversely affects the capacity of the sole superpower to act unilaterally and control global affairs from one principal place. This multipolarity increased the importance of diplomacy, and the capacity to mobilize the support of regional influentials. This has expanded the global agenda with a greater focus beyond North America and Europe.

The changed nature of the global system has increased the importance of the European Union and several countries in Asia and Africa like Japan, South Korea, India, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. China and Russia have emerged as the major competitors for the U.S. The U.S. priority is to contain China’s economic and diplomatic expansion at the global level. The U.S. is also concerned about the growing cooperation between Russia and China and Russia’s activism at the global level.

The agenda of the new American administration will therefore include the containment of China and Russia, building India as a rival to China, increase in American support and influence in the Asia-Pacific region, and sustain Israel’s military superiority in the Middle East. The ending of the two wars will come as a lower priority. It is difficult to suggest how quickly the U.S. can move to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.

The Trump Presidency and Pakistan



Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi



(January 2025): The new Republican Administration under Donald Trump is expected to take over in the United States in January 2025. Donald Trump returns to the White House after a gap of four years.

In Pakistan, a lively debate is taking place in active political circles and among political commentators if Donald Trump would be helpful to Imran Khan’s release from prison? The PMLN leaders are issuing more statements on this issue than the PTI leaders. Normally, we do not expect the Trump Administration to issue a statement supportive of Imran Khan because its priority will be to address the problems relating to America’s domestic context and its role at the global level. Imran Khan does not contribute to strengthening America’s global role or help resolve its domestic issues.

Imran Khan becomes a matter of interest for the Trump administration in a roundabout way. Imran Khan can draw the attention of the Trump Administration if Imran’s supporters in the United States are able to mobilize the support of Republican Congresspersons and Senators through their linkages with those whom they supported in the elections. The PTI activists also directly funded or supported Trump’s campaign. It is through these linkages that the Trump administration can be approached for a favorable statement for Imran Khan. We need to remember that in the pre-election period, around sixty Congresspeople wrote a letter to President Joe Biden for Imran Khan’s release. This was the outcome of lobbying and support of pro-Imran Pakistani-Americans. They can make another try through the Congress members or directly with Trump’s election campaign team. Another factor that can help Pakistani American supporters of PTI is their access to the Trump family and close associates. This gives direct access to PTI’s supporters to Donald Trump. Therefore, even if Imran Khan cannot be a foreign policy issue, a statement in his favor cannot be ruled out. Much depends on how Imran’s Pakistani supporters in the U.S. play their linkages and influence with those who are going to be important for the new administration. Even if the Trump team issues a pro-Imran statement, it is not going to insist on it.

Pakistan’s ruling circles should not waste their energy on this issue. If Pakistani rulers want to matter at the global level, they need to work hard to put their economic house in order, stabilize internal political situation and review the current policy of safeguarding their political power by self-serving legislation and using the control machinery of the state to subdue their political rivals.

When it comes to the new administration’s relations with Pakistan, the relationship may not be far different from what it was during the Biden years. With the exit of the U.S. from Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan’s salience in American security policy has declined. American interest is more focused on the Asia-Pacific region and on containing Chinese influence in that region and elsewhere. Given Pakistan’s special relations with China and Pakistan’s domestic political conflicts and a faltering economy, it cannot project its power beyond its immediate neighborhood. Pakistan is not relevant to America’s Asia-pacific policy for containment of China’s influence. The U.S. will continue to treat Pakistan as a friendly country but it is no longer America’s strategic partner.

The U.S. maintains interest in Pakistan to the extent of making sure that the present-day Afghanistan does not become a center for terrorism that spills over to other countries, especially the western countries. The U.S. needs Pakistan’s cooperation for monitoring the situation in Afghanistan and for making sure that it does not become a sanctuary for transnational terrorism. The U.S. supports Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts.

The U.S. wants to help Pakistan to contain socio-religious intolerance, extremism and terrorism within Pakistan. A stable, secure and moderate Pakistan is in America’s interest. It is therefore willing to provide financial and technological support to the government of Pakistan to contain these trends and promote tolerance, civil and political rights and constitutionalism.

The United States views Pakistan’s internal stability and economic resilience as a contributory factor to stability and peace in the region around Pakistan where America maintains strategic interests. The U.S. will continue to provide economic support, technological assistance for industrialization, agriculture, energy, Information Technologies, and education. The U.S. is the biggest trading partner of Pakistan and both countries value this relationship. The U.S. also contributes to human and societal development in Pakistan and offers humanitarian assistance in the case of natural disasters like floods, earthquake and pandemic.

Still another American interest is the security and safety of Pakistan’s nuclear program and that no full-fledged conventional war breaks out between India and Pakistan.

The Biden Administration’s decision to impose restrictions on four Pakistani commercial entities because of their alleged role in building up Pakistan’s missile program casts a negative shadow on Pak-U.S relations and it will haunt their relations in the early phase of Trump’s presidency. The American claim that Pakistan is working on missiles that will reach the United States is a far-fetched assumption. Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs are focused on India only: to deter India from military adventurism in Pakistan.

In addition to divergence between Pakistan and the U.S. on Pakistan’s missile program, the new U.S. administration is expected to express reservations on Pakistan’s close alignment with China because the U.S. views China as its major global competitor. Pakistan will not yield to this pressure and continues with its multifaceted relations with China. Of late, Pakistan has started cultivating Russia.

Pakistan will continue to object to the growing India-U.S. ties in defense and security domains and American effort to build India as a counterbalance to China. Pakistan’s concern is that India will use American backed military power to threaten Pakistan rather than building pressure on China.

The U.S.-Pakistan interaction under the Trump administration will manifest positive and negative trends simultaneously. However, neither Pakistan nor the U.S. will abandon each other altogether.

پاکستانی سیاست کے چار اہم مسائل

ڈاکٹر حسن عسکری رضوی

(جنوری 2025): پاکستانی سیاست میں آج کل چار بڑے رجحانات نمایاں ہیں جو سیاسی عمل میں تضادات کا باعث بن رہے ہیں۔ چار بڑے رجحانات میں شامل ہیں (1) حکمران PMLN اتحاد اور PTI کے درمیان مذاکرات جو اس مرحلے پر تعطل کا شکار نظر آتے ہیں۔ (2) وزیر اعظم اور سرکاری حلقے معاشی بحالی کی بات کر رہے ہیں جو کہ ان کے خیال میں بڑی پیشرفت کی طرف گامزن ہے۔ یہ امید آزاد مبصرین کی طرف سے مشترکہ نہیں ہے. (3) جیسے جیسے ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ کی امریکہ میں صدارت سنبھالنے کی تاریخ قریب آرہی ہے، پاکستان میں حکمران مسلم لیگی حلقے ٹرمپ انتظامیہ کی جانب سے عمران خان کے حق میں بیان جاری کرنے کے خوف سے پریشان ہیں۔ ان میں سے کچھ اس الجھن میں ہیں کہ اگر ایسی صورت حال پیدا ہوتی ہے تو حکومت پاکستان کو کیا جواب دینا چاہیے۔ (4) شہباز شریف گورننس میں فوج کو جگہ فراہم کر رہے ہیں تاکہ فوج کی اعلیٰ کمان پی ٹی آئی کے لیے کسی قسم کی رہائش اختیار کرنے کے بجائے ان کی حکومت کی حمایت جاری رکھے۔

پی ایم ایل این کی زیر قیادت حکمران اتحاد اور پی ٹی آئی کے درمیان مذاکرات کے دو دور ہو چکے ہیں لیکن ان مذاکرات میں کئی مشکلات کا سامنا ہے۔ پی ایم ایل این میں پی ٹی آئی کے ساتھ سیاسی رہائش کی ضرورت پر منقسم ہے۔ پی ایم ایل این میں مذاکرات کی مخالفت کرنے والے ریاستی نظام اور اس کے تعزیری قوانین کے ساتھ ساتھ آرمی اسٹیبلشمنٹ کی حمایت پر بھروسہ کرکے پی ٹی آئی کو سیاسی عمل سے ختم کرنا چاہتے ہیں۔ پی ٹی آئی نے کافی تذبذب کے بعد بات کرنے پر رضامندی ظاہر کی ہے۔ پہلے یہ سیاسی حکومت سے بات نہیں کرنا چاہتا تھا۔ اب اس نے اپنا موقف بدل لیا ہے اور بات چیت کے لیے سامنے آئی ہے۔ تاہم پی ٹی آئی کے بعض عناصر پی ایم ایل این کے ساتھ کسی سیاسی معاہدے کے بارے میں پرامید نہیں ہیں۔ مذاکرات میں شامل پی ایم ایل این کے رہنماؤں نے پی ٹی آئی کے لیے ریاستی پالیسیوں کو نرم کرتے ہوئے کوئی ابتدائی اشارہ نہیں دیا۔

تحریک انصاف نے ابتدائی طور پر تین مطالبات پیش کیے ہیں: تمام سیاسی قیدیوں کو عدالتی عمل کے ذریعے رہا کیا جائے۔ 9 مئی (2023) اور 26 نومبر (2024) کے پرتشدد واقعات کی تحقیقات کے لیے دو عدالتی کمیشن بنائے جائیں؛ مذاکراتی ٹیم کے پی ٹی آئی ارکان کو جیل میں عمران خان سے آسان اور بغیر نگرانی کے ملاقات کرنی چاہیے۔ حکومت چاہتی ہے کہ تحریک انصاف مطالبات تحریری طور پر پیش کرے، تاہم حکومت اپنا مطالبہ تحریری طور پر دینے کو تیار نہیں۔ حکومت کی طرف سے ان مطالبات پر اپنا رویہ نرم کرنے کے کوئی اشارے نہیں ملے ہیں۔

وزیر اعظم اور اعلیٰ سرکاری افسران بار بار پاکستان کی معیشت میں اضافے کے رجحان کی بات کر رہے ہیں۔ ان کے دلائل آئی ایم ایف کی جانب سے نئے اقتصادی تنظیم نو کے قرض کی منظوری کے ذریعے پاکستان کو بین الاقوامی اقتصادی مدد کی دستیابی پر مبنی ہیں۔ اس فیصلے نے پاکستان کو دوسرے بین الاقوامی مالیاتی اداروں اور کچھ ممالک سے قرضے اور مالی مدد حاصل کرنے کی صلاحیت کو آسان بنایا۔ اس سب کا مطلب یہ ہے کہ معیشت کی میکرو سطح اور بین الاقوامی جہت مضبوط ہوئی ہے۔ تاہم، جب ہم معیشت کے ملکی جہت کا جائزہ لیتے ہیں، تو صورت حال پریشان کن ہے۔ مہنگائی میں کمی کے سرکاری دعووں کے باوجود عام لوگ مہنگائی، یوٹیلیٹی اور پیٹرول کی قیمتوں میں مسلسل اضافہ سے شدید متاثر ہیں۔ زندگی گزارنے کی لاگت بڑھ رہی ہے۔ زراعت اور صنعتی شعبے بے روزگاری اور غربت کو کم کرنے کے لیے خاطر خواہ ترقی نہیں کر رہے۔ نوجوان اپنے مستقبل کے بارے میں مایوس ہیں اور ان میں سے زیادہ تر معاشی مواقع تلاش کرنے کے لیے بیرون ملک جانا چاہتے ہیں۔

PMLN کے کچھ رہنما امریکہ میں نئی ​​ٹرمپ انتظامیہ کے عمران خان کے ساتھ عوامی ہمدردی اور شہری اور سیاسی حقوق کے معاملے کو اٹھانے کے امکان پر تشویش کا اظہار کرتے ہیں۔ اگرچہ یہ تجویز کرنا مشکل ہے کہ ٹرمپ انتظامیہ پاکستان سے متعلق مسائل کے حل کے لیے اپنے عالمی ایجنڈے سے جلد وقت نکالے گی جب امریکی خارجہ پالیسی کے فریم ورک میں پاکستان کی اہمیت کم ہو چکی ہے۔ اس کے باوجود پی ایم ایل این حکومت کے لیے یہ لمحہ فکریہ ہے۔

پاکستانی سیاست کی چوتھی خصوصیت پی ایم ایل این کی حکومت کی جانب سے پاکستان کی ملکی سیاست کے تناظر میں فوج کی اچھی مرضی کو برقرار رکھنے اور فوج کو اپنے ساتھ رکھنے کی لامتناہی کوشش ہے۔ وزیر اعظم اپنی تقاریر میں آرمی چیف کی گورننس اور دہشت گردی پر قابو پانے میں ان کے تعاون کی عوامی سطح پر تعریف کرتے ہیں۔ موجودہ سویلین حکومت نے 2008 کے بعد سے کسی بھی سویلین حکمران کے مقابلے میں فوج کو زیادہ جگہ دی ہے۔ اسپیشل انویسٹمنٹ فیسیلیٹیشن کونسل (SIFC)، وفاقی اور صوبائی اعلیٰ کمیٹیوں میں اس کی موجودگی کے ذریعے سویلین حکومتی امور اور پالیسی سازی میں فوج کے کردار میں اضافہ ہوا ہے۔ کارپوریٹ کاشتکاری. وفاقی حکومت پی ٹی آئی کے ان کارکنوں کے ساتھ مؤثر طریقے سے نمٹنے پر اصرار کرتی ہے جنہوں نے فوجی تنصیبات پر حملہ کیا اور عام شہریوں کے فوجی ٹرائل کی حمایت کی۔ یہ 26 نومبر کے واقعات کو 9 مئی کے واقعات سے جوڑتا ہے تاکہ پی ٹی آئی کی ریاست مخالف سرگرمیوں کو ظاہر کیا جا سکے اور فوجی اعلیٰ افسران کو قائل کیا جائے کہ وہ پی ٹی آئی کے بارے میں اپنا رویہ نرم نہ کریں۔ پاکستان میں موجودہ سیاسی انتظامات کو جاری رکھنے کے لیے فوج کی حمایت اہم ہے۔

سیاسی رہنما سیاست میں تنازعات کو کم کر سکتے ہیں اور سیاسی اداروں اور عمل کی بالادستی کو بحال کر سکتے ہیں اور ان کے درمیان بات چیت کے ذریعے متنازعہ مسائل کو حل کر سکتے ہیں۔ اگر مذاکرات میں ملکی سیاسی تنازعات کے پرامن حل کے طریقے وضع کیے جاتے ہیں تو موجودہ دور کے سویلین انتظامات کی برداشت کا امکان بڑھ جائے گا اور ملکی معیشت کی جہت میں بہتری آئے گی۔

Four Major Issues of Pakistani Politics

Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi

(January 2025): Four major trends are prominent in Pakistani politics now-a-days which cause contradictions in the political process. The four major trends include (1) the talks between the ruling PMLN coalition and the PTI which appear to be stalemated at this stage. (2) The Prime Minister and the official circles are talking about economic recovery, which, in their view, is on the way to a major stride. This optimism is not shared by independent observers. (3) As the date for assumption of Presidency in the United States by Donald Trump approaches, the ruling Muslim League circles in Pakistan are haunted by the fear of the Trump Administration issuing a statement in favor of Imran Khan. Some of them are confused as to how the Pakistan government should respond, if such a situation arises. (4) Shehbaz Sharif continues to yield space to the military in governance so that the Army’s top command continues to support his government rather than adopt any accommodation towards the PTI.

Two rounds of talks between the PMLN-led ruling coalition and PTI have taken place but these talks face several difficulties. The opinion in the PMLN is divided on the need for political accommodation with the PTI. Those opposed to the talks in the PMLN want to eliminate the PTI from the political process by relying on the state apparatus and its punitive laws as well as on the support of the Army establishment. The PTI has agreed to talk after a lot of hesitation. Previously it did not want to talk with the political government. It has now changed its position and came forward for talks. However, some elements in the PTI are not hopeful about any political agreement with the PMLN. The PMLN leaders involved in the talks have not suggested any initial gestures by softening the state policies towards the PTI. The PTI has initially put forward three demands: free all political prisoners through the judicial process; two judicial commission be set up to investigate the violent incidents of May 9 (2023) and November 26 (2024); the PTI members of the negotiating team should have easy and unmonitored meetings with Imran Khan in the prison. The government wants the PTI to submit the demands in writing, although the government is not willing to give its demand in writing. There are no indications from the government side to soften its approach on these demands.

The Prime Minister and the senior government officials are repeatedly talking about an upward trend in Pakistan’s economy. Their arguments are based on the availability of international economic support to Pakistan by the IMF decision to grant a new economic restructuring loan. This decision facilitated Pakistan’s ability to obtain loans and financial support from other international financial institutions and some countries. All this means that the Macro level and International dimension of the economy is strengthened. However, when we examine the domestic dimension of the economy, the situation is problematic. Despite the official claims of reduction in inflation the ordinary people continue to be hit hard by price hikes, the cost of utilities and petrol. The cost of living is on the rise. Agriculture and industrial sectors are not showing enough growth to reduce unemployment and poverty. The young people are disappointed about their future and most of them want to go abroad to seek economic opportunities.

Some PMLN leaders express concern about the possibility of the new Trump Administration in the United States publicly sympathizing with Imran Khan and raising the issue of civil and political rights. Though it is difficult to suggest that the Trump Administration will find time quickly from its global agenda for addressing Pakistan related issues when Pakistan’s importance has declined in the American foreign policy framework. Nevertheless, it is a matter of concern for the PMLN government.

The fourth feature of Pakistani politics is the PMLN government’s endless effort to sustain the military’s good will and keep the military on its side in the context of Pakistan’s domestic politics. The Prime Minister publicly praises the Army Chief in his speeches for his contribution to governance and containment of terrorism. The present civilian government has conceded more space to the military than any civilian ruler since 2008. The military’s role in civilian government affairs and policy making has increased through its presence in the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), federal and provincial apex committees, and corporate farming. The federal government insists on dealing effectively with the PTI activists who attacked military installations and supports military trials of civilians. It links the November 26 incidents with May 9 incidents to demonstrate the PTI’s anti-state activities and convince the military top brass not to soften its attitude towards the PTI. The military’s support is critical to the continuation of the present-day political arrangements in Pakistan.

The political leaders can reduce conflict in politics and restore the primacy of the political institutions and processes by settling the contentious issues through a dialogue among them. If the talks evolve the methods for peaceful resolution of domestic political conflicts, the probability of endurance of the present-day civilian arrangements will increase and the domestic dimension of the economy will improve.

Dr. Hassan Askari Political Analyst Reveals Facts.

Interview with eawaz

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