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Gold is forming a lower wick at key support and recovering from yesterday’s drop, with a 2.5% rebound from the local low. A pullback toward 4738–4720 is possible before continuation as liquidity is taken.
Trump’s ceasefire extension has temporarily supported the dollar and gold, but negotiations remain stalled as Iran awaits a US proposal and tensions persist.
Fed signals from Kevin Warsh suggest a less dovish stance, which could limit upside.
If de-escalation, stronger negotiations, and a weaker dollar continue, gold may rise. Otherwise, escalation, stronger dollar, or higher rate expectations could pressure prices.
Resistance: 4772, 4798, 4830
Support: 4738, 4700, 4668
Break above 4770 may trigger further upside; otherwise, liquidity sweep toward 4720 is possible first.
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