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Watch Markets, Finding A BOTTOM?!

Following our previous brief that focused on the drawdown of demand velocity, this update highlights a different but notable shift in market trends. The past two weeks have seen a significant (10%) drop, in the supply of high-quality, fairly priced timepieces. This change has led to a measurable impact on several key market indicators.

- Supply and Demand Trends:

Steady Demand with Reduced Supply: Compared to the previous period, demand has remained consistent, but there's been a noticeable decrease in supply.

- Impact on Demand Velocity and Volatility:

The current market situation, characterized by stable demand and reduced supply, has led to an increase in Demand Velocity. Additionally, Volatility, which tracks historical and near-term price and supply/demand fluctuations, has shown signs of improvement.

Demand to Supply Ratio: This important metric, which balances very recent demand against available supply, has seen a notable shift due to the 10% reduction in high-quality supply. This means a healthier ratio overall.

Price Shifts and Brand Performance:

Overall Market Price Shifts: WatchQuant's market average index has registered a minimal absolute price shift of -1.01%, indicating a market that's finding its footing in terms of pricing.

Brand-Specific Trends:

Tudor, Breitling, and Omega: These brands have shown positive growth, with price increases of +0.1%, +0.26%, and +0.25%, respectively.

Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet: While still experiencing drawdowns, these major brands are seeing a slowdown in this down-trend, with decreases of -0.56%, -0.50%, and -0.06%, respectively.

Market Stability and Liquidity

Market Stability: As demand and supply move towards equilibrium, prices also appear to be reaching a point of stability. This could potentially mark the turnaround point for the year-long bear market trend.

Liquidity: For the first time in a year, the market is witnessing an increase in absolute liquidity, now at 16.58%. This 12% nominal increase (up from 14.60% last period) is a significant shift, albeit the market remains in a delicate state, as liquidity under 25% is unhealthy over all.

So? What does all this proprietary mumbo jumbo mean?

While not yet indicative of a fully healthy market, these trends suggest a move towards stabilization. WatchQuant.com will continue to provide in-depth analysis and updates on the watch market, which you have full access to, live and daily on the web-app. As always, this is not investment advice, and Watchquant is the proprietor of all of our analytics, utilizing the latest data to keep you informed of all significant market shifts.

Stay tuned for more detailed market briefs as we conduct further quantitative analysis on the most current and relevant market data.

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