RazrGroup

The best transaction I worked on last quarter was one I talked a client out of.

A business owner brought me a restaurant property. On paper it was attractive: an operating business with real estate attached.

Then we ran the numbers. At today’s rates, the debt service sat well above what the property’s income could carry.

He was focused on the opportunity. I was focused on a different question: would this property strengthen the business over the next five years, or quietly weaken it?

We decided not to move forward.

Not every good opportunity is a good decision. Sometimes the most useful thing an advisor does is help you see the difference before you sign.

436 commercial sales closed in Denver last quarter. Up 42% year over year.

And it still isn’t a recovery story.

Total dollar volume actually fell, from $1.565B to $1.276B.

More deals, smaller checks. Buyers are active again, but pricing and deal size are still adjusting.

Underneath the headline, the four asset classes are not telling the same story:

Industrial: vacancy steady at 8.6%, asking rents still up 4.1% year over year. Stabilizing, not booming.

Retail: rents up 2.58%, vacancy running below its long-term average. Quietly the healthiest of the four.

Office: roughly 180,600 SF of negative absorption, with about 19% vacancy from the Tech Center to Lone Tree. Still under pressure.

Multifamily: 10,721 units under construction while rents slid 3.31%. Supply is the real risk here.

The opportunity right now isn’t chasing momentum.

It’s knowing which asset class, which submarket, and which basis still pencils.

Which Denver asset class are you underwriting most carefully this quarter?