OpenEcon

The blue line is an estimate of potential real GDP growth in the U.S., from the congressional budget office (CBO). The important thing to realize is many economists think 2% real GDP growth is the new normal. Federal Reserve projections also have around 2% as the new normal. So what does this mean? In slow growth environments there are just less opportunities. Business opportunities pop up less frequently. Chances to upgrade your job are fewer and farther in between. That next great investment is harder to find. These are not the days of the 90's when it seemed like there was a new opportunity around every corner. And these economists don't think the new tax cuts and deregulation are going to unleash some large wave of pent up productive activity. We are likely stuck in this slow growth world until the next technology boom. When and what will it be? Biotechnology, artificial intelligence... who knows. But until it comes, factor some slow growth assumptions into your personal finance and business plans.

At barnes and noble the other day. Not surprising the cd section has dwindled to almost nothing. But what was surprising was how big their section was. I knew vinyl was making a comeback in certain circles. But i didn't realize it was so widespread. It shows the shift in preferences. Portability is less important and sound quality and the overall "listening experience" is more important. I enjoy vinyl but I will stick to my used record store thank you. I'm not dropping $30 for the new Beyonce Lemonade LP. The marginal benefit in listening experience is not worth the extra $15 compared to other formats (marginal cost), at least based on my utility function.

Another inspired thought. A big part of the Detroit hip-hop story is battle rap competitions, particularly in the 1990's. They took place on corners, barber shops, and famously at the Hip Hop Shop. Some battled just for the sake of competition, but some did it as a form of promotion and branding, to help advance their music career. MC's are artists but they are also sellers of a product, and to sell that product they have to engage in price competition and non-price competition. Promoting and Branding is the latter. Over the past decades battle rap competitions have move beyond local clothing shops in cities like Detroit, Harlem, and LA, to the national and even global stage. There were big platforms like scribble jam, the smack dvd series, jump off's world rap championships, Grind Time, and today there's URL, KOTD, and literally hundreds of other leagues. Detroit artists like Marv Won (in pic) have used this form of non-price competition to differentiate himself and get more paying customers (check out his music at https://marvwonder.bandcamp.com/ ) photo credit to Jenny Risher

Finally saw the DIA exhibit D-Cyphered by photographer Jenny Risher. Beautifully captured images, and a very interesting story of the evolution of Detroit's hip hop scene, ranging from artists like DJ Los to royce 5 9 to MarvWon. I also came away with many names I didn't know but will further research. But the economic insight to the story is the social benefit of low barriers to entry. A sign on the exhibit wall written by Ms. Risher said "Young Detroiters began carving out their own Hip-Hop presence by rapping in basements, record stores, and talent shows. They formed independent owned record labels, built their own studios, and released some of the best Hip-Hop music ever recorded." This movement emerged in the 80s and 90s. Technology was changing and new formats of audio production and recording made the minimum efficient scale lower, meaning the average cost per recorded album (on cassette or later CD) wasn't much different if you made a couple hundred or a couple hundred thousand. This combined with little startup cost (digital sampler, drum machine, sequencer, etc...) meant smaller local studios, artists, and producers could jump in the music market and compete with major national record labels, and the creativity of the city was unleashed. (Famed Detroit producer J Dilla did a lot of production out of his home basement). If barriers to entry were high the only music that would be commercially available would come from a handful of major record labels and we would definitely not have the eclectic hip hop scene in Detroit we have now.