SeaBee Explorations Society

The NWS has been nagging us for days about the coming snow, sleet & freezing rain. So far, nada, zip, zilch, squat. For those of you who given a 50/50 chance are wrong 95% of the time, Weatherman is the job for you. Where else can you always be wrong and still not get fired?

RECORD HEAT FLUX FORECAST TO ENTER ARCTIC

The extreme record setting mid latitude cyclone with a record cold bringing polar vortex that caused the blizzard on the U.S. Gulf Coast Tuesday and went on to strike the UK Friday night with the highest winds ever recorded in Ireland will be followed by a massive atmospheric heat flux that is forecast to enter the Arctic in one week that could raise temperatures to levels more than 30°C (54°F) higher for the date than the 1979-2000 average according to the latest GFS forecast. This event will likely cause sudden significant extremely early season ice melt in the Arctic Ocean.

Thwaites, the largest glacier in the world, is as of today disintegrating. It will probably be completely gone by about April. About 2,000 square km is disintegrating now or imminently - possibly within days - it’s about 1,000 m thick on average. Global sea level will be rising at least a few centimeters by April. After April, the then exposed West Antarctic Ice Sheet will likely begin calving massively. In the worst case if it all calves away then global sea level will rise 14 ft or about 5 m. It was thought until recently it would take 200 to 900 years for Thwaites to disintegrate. It’s happening before our eyes. Scientists have consistently underestimated the speed of ice melt at both poles.

There are enormous ramifications of this break up besides sea level rise. Global ocean circulation will begin to shift dramatically leading to a weaker AMOC circulation for example. This will lead to dramatic cooling of the climate in Europe leading to crop failures. Another impact is that the Southern Ocean will absorb far less carbon leading to accelerating atmospheric CO2 increases.

The latest ECMWF global model predicts global average atmospheric (surface) warming of + 2.5 degrees C this year (up from 1.5 degrees C now). This is because of the confluence of a number of important factors including a sunspot cycle peak in July, accelerating loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, and feedback loops like fewer clouds at non polar latitudes and methane eruptions from melting methane hydrates on the sea floor of the shallower parts of the warming Arctic Ocean around Siberia as well as terrestrial methane emissions from melting tundra in Siberia and other areas.

For those of us who have been waiting for the last 11 YEARS for some decent Northern Lights (Auroras), tonight (Oct. 10-11, 2024) might just be our chance. Here's the official NOAA Warning:

"WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1541 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 11 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon".

What the above is saying is that The CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) launched by Tuesday's Solar X-flare has just reached Earth. It appears to be as potent as advertised. Solar wind speeds have jumped up to 497 miles/second, and a crack is opening in Earth's magnetic field. This is setting the stage for G3 to G4-class geomagnetic storms later today.

NOAA and NASA models both agree that the CME will strike our planet late on Oct. 10th. The impact could spark up to 12 hours of severe storming with naked-eye auroras visible in many US states and European countries. NOAA's detailed forecast has the storm crossing the boundary from Oct. 10th to Oct. 11th, involving both calendar dates.

Please note that auroras are not guaranteed. Sometimes even powerful CMEs fail to light up the night sky. It all depends on whether the CME connects magnetically to Earth. A strong connection can cause a great light show; a weak connection does the opposite. Fingers crossed for strong connections!