Evan Rush - Financial Advisor

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• Evidence continues to build around moderating inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) trajectory over the past three months, together with the signal from leading indicators of inflation (like the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) prices paid for inputs by manufacturing and services firms), indicates that core inflation could fall to 3% by year-end.
• The path of disinflation is unlikely to be a straight line and will require the labor-market tightness to ease. But even with the ongoing strength in job creation and historic low unemployment, wage pressures have started to moderate.

This graph (Bloomberg, Edward Jones calculations) shows the decline in prices paid by manufacturing and services firms as reported by the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) suggesting that inflation could drop towards 3% by the end of the year.

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• This year the Fed raised rates at a pace not seen since the '70s and '80s, aiming to reduce demand and slow the pace of inflation. As a result, bonds experienced the largest sell-off since records started in 1926, failing to provide their typical diversification benefits.
• As we approach the end of the Fed's tightening cycle and a potential peak in yields, we believe a lot of the bond-price adjustment is now behind us. History also tells us these peaks generally occur about two months ahead of the last Fed rate hike which we think will occur in the first half of next year.
• We see attractive opportunities forming in fixed-income asset classes across bond maturities, as higher yields enhance return potential. With interest rates meaningfully higher now than at the start of 2022, we believe bonds are better positioned to provide diversification benefits.