Fayette County Skywarn

540
AWUS01 KWNH 090807
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-091405-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0368
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Far Southern IN...Western and Central KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090805Z - 091405Z

SUMMARY...Concerns for scattered areas of flash flooding are
expected to increase this morning. Locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms with potential for backbuilding and training cells
will drive as much as 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall with
isolated 5+ inch totals possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCV continues to advance across areas of
western and central KY early this morning which is facilitating
areas of locally backbuilding and training showers and
thunderstorms. The energy is embedded within a moisture-rich
environment with PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches and is being influenced
by an uptick in a 850/925 mb west-southwest low-level jet that is
reaching 30+ kts around the vort's western and southwest flanks.

This low-level jet energy is transporting a narrow axis of
instability characterized by MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg
from the MO Bootheel region. Radar trends shows a fair amount of
backbuilding and cell-training over just the last hour as
favorable upwind propagation vectors become aligned against the
strengthening low-level jet.

There are several pieces of guidance including recent runs of the
RRFS and the earlier 00Z REFS which indicate a substantial threat
for heavy rainfall through early this morning. This is supported
to a lesser degree by the HRRR and 00Z HREF guidance, but even
these solutions have some heavy rainfall to varying degrees over
the next several hours.

Given the very moist environment, kinematics, and current radar
trends, the wetter consensus of hires CAMs generally seems to be
more plausible at this time. This would suggest some areas of
additional rainfall reaching 2 to 4 inches with isolated 5+ inch
totals possible where the better cell-training sets up. Overall,
the heaviest rains should focus over central and western KY, but
some portions of far southern IN may get into some of these rains
as well given proximity of the vort center. These rains are likely
to drive at least scattered areas of flash flooding going through
the morning hours.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38818551 38578468 37998451 37418472 36898530
36558623 36628770 36998816 37438822 37858791
38338690 38718627

Todays set up.. Cold front sitting to our north west with us sitting in prime warm moist air just waiting for a reason to start climbing ...

With that in mind showers and thunderstorms are on the menu today. with training storms along and east of the I65 corridor. Shear looks to be minimal again today but precipwater numbers are up. so another day of heavy rainfall due to multiple showers and storms passing by bringing a flooding threat with it where the stronger cells move over the same areas as the day goes on. Some storms may become strong to isolated severe with breif damaging winds and small hail being the main threats.

Stay weather aware today and for the rest of the week as shower and storm chances are going to be around for the next few days.