Fortunerst Securities

A recent Harris Poll for The Guardian reveals that 75% of Americans believe that prices are rising significantly—even though official inflation numbers have fallen from peaks. Many households report monthly cost increases between $100-$749, especially for necessities.

Though inflation has cooled to around 2.9% (from heights above 9% in previous years), it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Public sentiment is deeply negative: over half think the country is already in a recession, with more than 50% saying the economy is worsening. Economic anxiety cuts across political lines, although people differ on what issues matter most beyond inflation (e.g. tariffs, immigration).

The gap between lived cost-of-living pressures and macroeconomic data may make managing expectations harder for policymakers.

🔗 Source: The Guadian – https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/16/inflation-economic-pessimism-poll

The U.S. government has expressed strong concern over China’s proposed export controls on critical minerals and rare earths, warning that such policies may force global supply chains to decouple from China.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the U.S. Trade Representative argue that requiring licenses for products containing trace amounts of materials from China constitutes economic coercion.
The measures risk disrupting sectors dependent on these supply chains—semiconductors, electronics, and advanced tech industries. In response, the U.S. is exploring retaliatory trade measures and urging allied nations to diversify supply sources. The situation has led to renewed geopolitical tension—potential tariffs, diplomatic friction, and strategic realignments loom ahead of key international summits. The U.S. maintains that upholding openness and limiting economic coercion are essential for global trade stability.

🔗 Source: Financial Times – https://www.ft.com/content/15a957a7-104e-431a-807e-441e5c2c753f

US warns world will ‘decouple’ from China if it imposes new export controls Scott Bessent says Washington will retaliate if Beijing proceeds with policy on rare earths and critical minerals

U.S. financial regulators are preparing a proposal to ease capital requirements for community banks by adjusting the community bank leverage ratio (CBLR).
The proposed change would allow banks to use a simplified standard (the CBLR) instead of more complex risk-based capital calculations. Under the proposal, the leverage ratio requirement could be lowered from 9% to 8% for those opting in.
The move is aimed at supporting smaller banks to lend more freely, particularly in markets underserved by larger institutions. It comes amid concerns that stringent capital rules and compliance costs have been limiting lending capacity. The Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC are collaborating on this, with public comment expected before finalizing any changes. Advocates argue that community banks, which serve local businesses and households, will benefit directly—potentially aiding local economic activity. However, opponents caution about ensuring safety and soundness, noting that lower capital buffers may increase vulnerability to economic stress.

🔗 Source: Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/us-regulators-poised-offer-capital-relief-community-banks-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-10-15/

US regulators poised to offer capital relief to community banks, Bloomberg News reports US regulators are set to release a plan to encourage small banks to lend more by easing a set of capital requirements, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has been estimated by the Treasury Department to cost the economy up to $15 billion per week in lost output. The estimate comes from the White House Council of Economic Advisers. The shutdown is already hurting confidence, especially in sectors depending on federal operations or funding. One highlight is how the shutdown is dampening the ongoing investment momentum in areas like infrastructure or emerging technologies.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also noted the fiscal deficit for 2025 is shrinking compared to prior year but emphasized the risk that unchecked government spending and political gridlock could derail goals of reducing the deficit-to-GDP ratio to near 3%. The report underscores that even short disruptions in government operations can ripple into broader economic metrics—investment, consumer confidence, and business planning.
🔗 Source: Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-investment-boom-is-sustainable-bessent-says-2025-10-15/

Shutdown could cost US economy $15 billion a week, Treasury says It corrected an earlier statement from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.