Meteorologist Andrew Markowitz

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER + TORNADO OUTBREAK

As we’ve been saying for days, within our sequence the most concerning day is Monday, May 18. There is now a LEVEL 4 risk for the red zone in Kansas and Nebraska. We only see this classification a few times per year, so this is a more serious threat than usual.

This is a classic “triple point” setup where a cold front and dryline crash into a robust warm sector. This is one of the most reliable ways to get upper echelon severe weather days in this region, but of course it’s not guaranteed.

I have outlined below the location and intensity of the different hazards we can expect. If it reaches its ceiling, we could see a full on tornado outbreak with a few strong and long tracking tornadoes possible. Additionally, we could see very large and destructive hail and hurricane-force damaging winds in the most intense cells.

Note that it does not mean that EVERYONE will see severe weather, it’s that the potential is there. Moreover, this is by no means a slam dunk: if our capping inversion does not break, it would mean a much more subdued threat. If it does, explosive development would occur. We won’t know for sure until realtime.

Please stay safe and weather aware.