Avory & Co.

A Monday morning chart on the U.S. consumer.

This is BofA's aggregated card spending data, comparing the first three weeks of February to the last four weeks of May. Y/y change in the 7-day moving average. Ex-gas.

Almost every category sits above the 45-degree line. That means consumers spent MORE in May than they did in February, despite the gas-price spike that was supposed to crack the consumer.

Electronics ran 21% y/y. Online retail 16%. Airlines 11%. Restaurants and bars stayed positive.

The answer is straightforward. Nominal wage growth is running ahead of inflation. Real wages are positive. When that holds, consumers tend to absorb price shocks instead of pulling back.