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Mortgage rates cooled off last week. Home prices showed modest stabilization, with federal housing data rebounding slightly while broader home price measures indicated slowing annual appreciation. Consumer confidence remained relatively resilient despite a small pullback. Housing activity was uneven, as building permits recovered from prior declines, but new home sales weakened. Mortgage demand fell sharply, driven by a significant drop in refinancing activity. Economic growth remained positive but came in below expectations, while inflation stayed elevated and consumer spending remained steady despite softer income growth. Labor market data suggested some cooling, with both initial and continuing jobless claims trending higher.

The FHFA House Price Index increased 0.1% month-over-month in March, matching expectations and rebounding from a 0.1% decline in February. Home prices were up 1.7% year-over-year, unchanged from the prior annual pace, while the index level increased to 441.5 from 441.2.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed mixed results in March. Seasonally adjusted prices slipped 0.2% month-over-month, compared with a 0.1% decline previously, while non-seasonally adjusted prices increased 1.0% from the prior month. Annual price growth came in at 0.8%, slightly below the 0.9% expected and prior reading.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to 93.1 in May, topping expectations of 91.9 despite easing slightly from April’s level of 93.8.

Mortgage application submissions fell 8.5% during the week ending 5/22, following a 2.3% decline in the prior week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4%, while the Refinance Index declined 18.1%.

Building permits were revised to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,423,000 in April, below expectations of 1,442,000 but above the prior reading of 1,363,000. Permits increased 4.4% month-over-month, rebounding from an 11.4% decline in March.

The second estimate of first-quarter GDP showed the economy expanded at a 1.6% annualized pace, below expectations of 2.0% but above the prior estimate of 0.5%. GDP sales increased 1.5%, while the GDP Price Index rose 3.5%.

Personal income was unchanged in April, missing expectations for a 0.4% increase and slowing from a 0.5% gain in March. Personal spending increased 0.5%, matching expectations, while the Core PCE Price Index rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. The headline PCE Price Index increased 0.4% from March and 3.8% from a year earlier.

Continuing jobless claims rose to 1,786,000 for the week ending 5/16, above expectations of 1,780,000 and up from 1,771,000 the previous week. Initial jobless claims increased to 215,000 for the week ending 5/23, exceeding expectations of 211,000 and up from 210,000 the prior week.

New home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 in April, below expectations of 661,000 and down from 663,000 in March. Sales declined 6.2% month-over-month following a 3.4% increase in the prior month.

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Mortgage rates declined slightly last week. The latest housing reports were mixed, as Building Permits declined and Mortgage Applications moved lower, signaling softer near-term housing activity, while New Home Sales and Construction Spending both increased, pointing to continued underlying demand and ongoing building activity. Labor market data also showed uneven trends: the ADP Employment Report reflected slower private-sector hiring, but the Employment Situation Report showed stronger overall payroll growth and a stable unemployment rate, suggesting the broader labor market remains resilient. Meanwhile, Jobless Claims stayed relatively low despite a slight increase in initial filings, and Consumer Credit rose sharply, indicating consumers continue to rely on borrowing and maintain spending activity.

Building permits slipped 11.4% month-over-month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,363,000, which came in slightly below expectations and reversed February’s sharp increase.

New home sales, however, increased 8.9% in February to an annualized pace of 635,000, above the prior month’s level of 583,000.

Construction spending increased 0.6% month-over-month in March, following a 0.2% decline in February.

Mortgage application submissions decreased 4.4% during the week ending 5/1. Refinance application submissions decreased 5.1% while seasonally adjusted purchase application submissions decreased 3.7%.

The ADP Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 109,000 in April, which was below the expected increase of 118,000 but above the prior month’s gain of 61,000.

Continuing jobless claims were unchanged at 1,766,000 during the week ending 4/25, which was below expectations for 1,800,000. Initial jobless claims increased to 200,000 during the week ending 5/2, which was higher than the prior week’s level of 190,000 but still below expectations for 205,000.

Consumer credit jumped to $24.86 billion in March, well above the expected $12.50 billion increase and sharply higher than the prior month’s $8.85 billion gain.

The employment situation reports were mixed in April. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month, matching the prior month but coming in below expectations for a 0.3% increase, while annual wage growth rose 3.6%. The average workweek increased to 34.3 hours. Government payrolls slipped by 8,000 while manufacturing payrolls declined by 2,000. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000, surpassing expectations for 65,000, while private payrolls rose by 123,000. The participation rate edged down to 61.8% while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%.

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