Corey Ecton - Nature Untamed

20250925 // 1343CDT

*** Tropical Update ***

Wow, what a season it has been thus far! We survived the past month with hardly a system to mention with a largely stable regime in place bolstered by an unfavorable MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). This, in the wake of impressive SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) in place across the Caribbean and Gulf, has been quite the anomaly.

As we are poised to close out the month of September, a dramatic ramp-up in activity is underway, most notably in the far western Atlantic, and yes, a central east coast threat may exist as well.

Invest 93L has become Tropical Storm Humberto in the past 24 hours. While slow to intensify, the system is present. Invest 94L, the westernmost of the two systems, is currently positioned just north of the Dominican Republic and is expected to fully emerge into the warm shallows in vicinity of the islands, and translate northwestward toward the Bahamas. During this time, the system will encounter several different meteorological components which could exert impacts on the system.

Without delving too deeply into the core meteorology with these two systems, it is important to note that there will be at least some degree of binary relationship element between the two systems. Their proximity to each other will be the determiner as to the significance of this relationship and impacts to storm motion and energy bleed-off, which could occur with a very small partition separating the two. At this time, it does not appear that the impacts related to proximity will be destructive to either or both systems, but track-related fluctuations may be more notable than usual.

It does look at this time like both will have the potential to reach hurricane strength. Given the environmental contributors, particularly to Invest 94L and it's proximity and potential to make a U.S. landfall, the focus will be on this system as we move forward.

This evolution up to and including landfall will be fast. Global guidance has a consensus on this reaching in vicinity of the northern South Carolina coast in vicinity of Myrtle Beach, sometime midday Monday at the earlies, perhaps as late as mid-afternoon Tuesday.

This continues to be a system with an above-average degree of uncertainty attached. More updates will be forthcoming as higher resolution information comes available.

-Corey

Need to get back to these soon.