Semper Wealth Management

Semper Wealth Management

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Semper Wealth's name is derived from the Marine Corps Motto "Semper Fidelis", which means "Always

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02/05/2020

Recession projected in 13 to 25 months, Stock Market Peak projected in earliest 7 months to a maximum of 19 months. This means the market will most likely continue bull run after corona virus crisis abates, but not forever.
Let me start by saying I am an optimist on the market in the long run (always have been always will be). The 2yr 10yr yield curve inversion initial breech occurred in August 2019 (intraday August 13th, close level August 26th). Since World War II this has meant recession starting as soon as one and a half years with a maximum two and a half years later with NO false positives (unlike the popular 3-month 10-year inversion indicator)! This means that a peak in the stock market (occurs 6 months before a recession) could be as few as 7 months away or a maximum of 19 months away from now. The good news is we have time to prepare our portfolios. The bad news is that since market peaks are always accompanied by euphoria most people will forget all about this post and be fully invested (or more) at the exact wrong time.

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873 White Rose Way
Oviedo, FL
32765

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Wednesday 8am - 8pm
Thursday 8am - 8pm
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