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Digestive health problems are not ALWAYS a diet problem (fuel)...

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I was at Costco yesterday and did NOT enjoy my experience. The tension was palpable everywhere. (Note: This had nothing to do with Costco.) There were shoppers wearing N95 masks. That irritated me. The masks are in short supply for front-line health care workers and there is simply no reason to wear that at Costco. COVID is not passed that easily through the air.

I WANT TO SHARE THIS WITH YOU ALL FROM ONE OF MY RESPECTED MENTORS...Dr. Brownstein MD

Folks, the fear level out there is beyond reason. Unfortunately, my Governor and the rest of our lawmakers, including those in Washington, are making big decisions based on fear and not based on data. As I have been writing to you, the data is out there that COVID-19 is serious but only to a small percentage of our population—when all is said and done, less than 1%.
Could I be wrong? Of course, it wouldn’t be the first time. But, I have learned to do my own research and trust myself with the conclusions I come to. I utilize my research and my practical experience in order to make an appropriate decision about how to treat my patients or how to approach this COVID-19 pandemic.
I have been practicing medicine for over 25 years. During that time I have become a much better physician than I was at the beginning (at least I hope so). In medical school you learn far too many things that have no relevance in the real practice of medicine. Only when you get out in the real world does the real teaching begin. But, medical school did teach me important tools to become a competent physician.
One of the main things I was taught in medical school was to observe my patients. That was an important lesson. I observe how they look, walk, sound, and act. And, I observe recurring patterns with respect to diseases.
I have found it useful to observe disease patterns since many diseases consistently appear and disappear according to the calendar. One pattern that consistently repeats itself is that the flu season (for most) seems to start around the winter solstice (December 20-23) and ends around the spring equinox (March 19-21). This year the spring equinox was on March 20, 2020.
I have seen the reports that COVID-19 may be going on for up to 18 months. Some commentators are saying that we need to quarantine for at least six months to a year to get rid of it.
I SAY, HOGWASH!
Look at the following chart from the CDC that summarizes the peak month of flu activity from 1982-2018:
You can see the season starts in October and November with low numbers, peaks in January and February and begins to decline in March. The peak month of activity can change between the months of January, February and March. Keep in mind, this chart is an average of the activity between 1982-2018.

I have observed, on a yearly basis, that my patients begin to get less colds and other influenza-like illnesses around the spring eqionox. Some go into April and few go into May with viral infections, but they are usually fewer and fewer the further away from the spring solstice date. My four partners—Drs. Ng and Nusbaum, Jenny and Taylor all concur with this assessment. Between all of us, we have over 100 years of experience seeing this pattern.
So, what does this have to do with COVID-19? COVID-19 is more contagious than the common flu, but not that much more contagious. The ‘R naught’ (RO) is an estimate for how many other people one sick person is likely to infect. The RO for the common flu is 1.3 meaning one person can spread it 1.3 others. The RO for COVID-19 is 2-3.11 meaning one infected person can spread it to 2-3.1 others. For comparison, the RO for measles is 11-18. COVID-19 is more contagious than the common flu but much less contagious than measles. This should limit how long the illness lasts.
Coronaviruses do not like warm temperatures and higher humidity. As we warm in the spring, that should help. But, as previously stated, I have seen the spring equinox lower the incidence of flu-like illnesses for over 25 years. Some years, it takes a little while longer than others. However, I am only referring to a few weeks after the equinox.
Let me finally jump off my cliff here without a parachute. (BTW, I had an interesting parachuting experience when I was 18—that is for another time.) I predict that COVID- 19 will be begin to recede in its lethality over the next 2-3 weeks. The number of cases may still rise during this time because we have a back-log of tests and are testing more. I also predict the number of cases will begin to decline in 3-4 weeks– regardless of what we do. We are coming to the end of the flu season and I see no reason why COVID-19 would behave differently than any other flu-like virus.
Could I be wrong? Yes. The virus could mutate to a more aggressive strain. But, it could also mutate to a less lethal strain as well. Most highly aggressive and lethal viral strains eventually fade out after a short time on their own.
Time will tell if I am right. Unless this virus is markedly different than the other 200 or so flu- like viruses, we should be in for much better times very soon.
Don’t let your fear rise when all the new cases are reported. They are being reported in increasing numbers because we are testing more. The death rate is continuing to decline, just as I predicted it would. As of this writing (3.22.20), there have been 349 deaths and 29,270 infected. That results in a death rate of 1.2%. Initially, the US COIVD-19 fatality rate was between 2-3% (though I can’t cite this, I am taking this from my memory). This rate continues to decline because there are many more who recover uneventfully from COVID- 19. The media only sensationalizes the very ill and dying. The headline on MSN right now epitomizes the fear-based reporting by stating, “US Death Toll Rises...” It is a true headline as more have died over the last 24 hours. Perhaps a better headline could read, “Death rate for COVID-19 falls as more are tested.”
Folks, I know this is serious stuff. People have died and more will die. It is important to not let fear guide your decisions. Fear is guiding our Government right now and that is not going well for us. Take your supplements. See a holistic doctor. Eat well—avoid refined sugar! Maintain optimal hydration. These are some of the holistic steps you can take to avoid becoming a statistic in this crisis. We will overcome this, and I think better times are coming soon.
To All Our Health, ~DrB

Let’s just use a tiny, tiny, tiny bit of the nomenclature: AIDS is the disease; HIV is the virus that causes the disease. SARS is the disease; SARS Coronavirus-1 is the virus that causes the disease. The current disease is called COVID-19 and the virus is called SARS Coronavirus-2.

And we never found a fix for SARS Coronavirus-1?

Or any other human coronavirus for that matter. We know about coronaviruses for a long period of time. They normally cause mild colds in humans. It’s not the major element that causes the common cold; the major element is another virus, called rhinovirus, rhino from nose. But coronaviruses clearly cause mild respiratory tract infections.

In livestock and in birds, they do exact a significant morbidity. So if you’re a farmer, these things do bother you significantly. But to humans, they haven’t been an issue. Again, there are vaccines to some coronaviruses that infect animals.

There is a concern that this virus is of a different order. And you’re saying there are no guarantees that either a vaccine or drugs will be found?

Correct.

That sounds apocalyptic.

No, no, no. I don’t want to elicit any sort of panic. So, first of all, the new virus is very, very, very, very similar to the one that the research community found in 2002-2003. The thing that caused SARS in 2002-2003 is very, very similar — as I said, 80 percent identical — to the thing that’s causing COVID-19. So it’s not as if this is coming out of nowhere.

Having said that, right now, since we have no drugs or vaccinations and nothing is on the immediate horizon, if you wanted to be certain, if you were an insurance agent, you would clearly be able to say we have no insurance with any certainty that we will generate a vaccine or a drug.

This is not going to kill humanity. This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe, and most people have very mild symptoms.

So the fact that you have a 2 percent or 3 percent mortality rate — that number is driven upwards by the fact that the elderly are far more susceptible to it.

You’re not going to see millions upon millions of people dying. That’s not going to take place.