Real Estate Randy AZ - EXP Realty Tucson

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Subject: Quick Mortgage & Market Update

Hi everyone,

I wanted to share a quick update on what’s happening with mortgage rates and the housing market:

Mortgage Rates:
Rates have improved. Two weeks ago, the average 30-year rate was 6.86%, and we’re now more than half a percent lower. I expect a bit more improvement today or tomorrow. This is largely due to the ADP job report, which was expected to show +40,000 jobs but instead showed –32,000 jobs. Over the last four months, the labor market has seen a net loss of 17,000 jobs, signaling softness in the economy.

Because of this, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week is now around 90%. While Fed cuts don’t directly set mortgage rates, they do influence overall market conditions—including HO borrowing costs—which can indirectly help mortgage rates.

Important Condo Update:
Rising costs—especially insurance and maintenance—are causing more condo projects to become non-warrantable, even if they were approved just months ago. HOAs are adjusting policies to save money, but many are no longer meeting agency guidelines due to high deductibles or low coverage.

If you're representing a condo buyer or seller, it's crucial to understand warrantability upfront. Otherwise, transactions can fall apart late in the process, costing clients time and money.

Tucson Affordability Reminder:
The median home price in Tucson is still about $60,000 lower than the U.S. median. That makes owning a home here roughly $400/month cheaper than the national average. This is a great point to share with your network—Tucson is far more affordable than many people realize.

If you have questions about rates, market trends, or condo warrantability, I’m always here to help.

Best regards,
Randy Costilow
Real Estate Consultant
520-444-8444
[email protected]

✅ Current Rate Snapshot

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. is about 6.30% (week ending Oct 24, 2025).
Trading Economics
mortgagenewsdaily.com

Experts suggest average 30-year conventional APRs are slightly higher (depending on fees/points) — generally in the mid-6% range (i.e., ~6.5-7%).
Norada Real Estate

Forecasts: Many expect mortgage rates to remain above 6% for a while; some project 2026 averages around ~6.0% but not dramatically lower.
Norada Real Estate

Suggested Stats for Tucson Post:

👉 “30-Year Fixed ≈ 6.30%”
👉 “Estimated APR ~ 6.80%”

You should still note that local factors, credit score, down payment, property type etc., will shift your actual rate/ APR.

🔍 Two Key Insights on Federal Reserve / Mortgage Rate Outlook

The Fed has projected a few short-term rate cuts, but these don’t automatically mean large drops in mortgage rates — because mortgage rates are influenced more by long-term bond yields, inflation expectations, and supply/demand of mortgage-backed securities.
CBS News
Investopedia

With inflation still above target and economic uncertainties remaining, long-term rates (and thus mortgage rates) may stay elevated — meaning the “new normal” mortgage rate may settle in the 6%+ zone for a while.
New York Post

Market update for
September 3 , 2025

Do NOT wait !
The time to buy is now.

Well the rates are starting to drop !
Are you ready?