Aaron Adams - Alpine Capital Solutions

New Signal This Week: Institutional Research Is Starting to Favor the Midwest Over the Sun Belt

A noticeable theme emerged across fresh outlook reports:
National apartment deliveries are falling sharply.
Occupancy has improved to roughly 94.9% nationally.
Lease renewals are rising.
Investors are increasingly favoring markets with moderate growth and limited supply over high-growth markets that overbuilt.

The implication:
The best risk-adjusted opportunities for 2026–2028 may not be the fastest-growing metros. They may be the metros that avoided massive overbuilding.

🏙️ Kansas City — Strongest New Bullish Data of the Week
Several independent forecasts continue pointing the same direction.
New findings
Stabilized occupancy remains exceptionally healthy at 94.5%.
Yardi Matrix
Yardi projects +3.9% rent growth through YE 2026, among the highest forecasts for major U.S. markets.
Cushman & Wakefield Kansas City
KC currently ranks among the national leaders in rent growth.

Net apartment demand is projected around 2,800 units, roughly matching recent performance.

Major development pipeline
The biggest long-term demand catalyst remains the Panasonic ecosystem and related manufacturing expansion in western KC suburbs. Marcus & Millichap notes that job creation tied to the De Soto battery plant is already occurring and should continue supporting housing demand.

What matters
Kansas City is increasingly becoming:
→ Midwest stability
+
→ Sun Belt-style growth
That's a powerful combination.

🏢 Indianapolis — Supply Retrenchment Is Accelerating
This week's strongest new information came from construction pipeline data.
New findings
Multifamily construction starts have contracted roughly 65%.
Deliveries are slowing after peak supply years.
Rent growth remains positive despite elevated deliveries.
Indianapolis continues benefiting from population growth and renter demand.

Additional insight
Industrial demand remains extremely strong:
Record absorption occurred in the industrial sector.
Asking industrial rents are now more than 50% above levels from five years ago.

Industrial growth typically supports future housing demand.
What matters
Indy increasingly looks like:
→ low volatility
→ growing demand
→ shrinking future supply
Exactly the profile institutions are targeting.

🌆 Charlotte — Recovery Setup Continues to Improve
No major blockbuster development this week, but the broader thesis strengthened.
National reports continue showing:
New apartment starts are declining rapidly.
Deliveries are falling.
Occupancy is recovering.

Charlotte remains one of the metros most likely to benefit from that shift because it experienced one of the largest supply waves.
The key question is no longer:
"Did Charlotte overbuild?"
The key question is:
"How quickly does Charlotte absorb what it already built?"
Current evidence suggests faster than many analysts expected.

🌳 Winston-Salem / NC Triad
No major Triad-specific institutional reports surfaced this week.
The important signal is indirect:
As capital becomes more cautious about oversupplied metros, secondary markets with:
stable occupancy,
lower construction volumes,
and lower volatility