Central Asia Program

CAP UZBEKISTAN POLICY BRIEF by Éva Berde and Myassar Kurbanova, February 11, 2026

Uzbekistan’s youth are not a problem to be managed but a resource to be mobilized. The Deadweight Loss of Emigration framework demonstrates that the economic consequences of emigration depend critically on who leaves, under what conditions, and within which institutional environment. While low-skilled emigration may appear beneficial in the short run, it signals structural weakness. High and medium-skilled emigration, by contrast, represents a clear and lasting economic loss.

The central policy challenge is therefore not to maximize remittances, but to minimize deadweight loss by creating an economy in which young people can and want to build their futures at home. The demographic window is open, but it will close. Decisions taken now will determine whether Uzbekistan enters the next phase of its demographic transition with a strong productive base or with a lasting legacy of missed opportunity.

More: https://centralasiaprogram.org/cap-uzbekistan-publications/the-deadweight-loss-of-emigration-in-uzbekistan-and-the-potential-of-youth-to-unlock-the-demographic-dividend/

Economist Richard Pomfret: "Uzbekistan is experiencing a period when transport costs to major markets in Asia and Europe are falling. If accompanied by appropriate domestic polices to reduce the cost of doing business and of conducting international trade, this offers a window of opportunity for diversification of the Uzbek economy."

https://centralasiaprogram.org/cap-uzbekistan-publications/prospects-for-economic-growth-through-export-diversification/

Join us for a dynamic panel exploring the future of Central Asia through the lenses of green markets, economic integration, and youth political culture. Experts will discuss sustainable growth under China’s BRI, regional cooperation amid global protectionism, and how young people in Kazakhstan are responding to political reforms.

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