Michael R. Strain

Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chairman is today. President Trump has three goals for the Fed: He wants Mr. Warsh in as chairman; he wants the current chairman, Jerome Powell, off the Fed’s powerful interest-rate-setting committee when his term ends on May 15; and he wants lower long-term interest rates.

But Mr. Trump’s own vindictiveness and lack of discipline are thwarting all three goals. Traders on Polymarket think the odds of Warsh being confirmed by May 14 are a measly 2 percent.

Warsh will be a terrific Fed chairman, bringing many skills and attributes to the post. Much of his reform agenda is laudable and necessary. But to ensure his timely confirmation, Republican senators must pressure Trump to drop the threats and the criminal investigation into Powell.

They must convince the president to get out of his own way.

My Project Syndicate column.

Trump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the Fed Michael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.

The Fed should treat inflation psychology as fragile — which makes the current situation in the Middle East even more precarious. If an energy price shock caused by the Iran war leads the public to worry that inflation is accelerating, then that concern could itself cause inflation to accelerate. And the public seems primed to worry about exactly that. A self-reinforcing inflationary spiral is a real concern.

My Financial Times column.

An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too

Markets, economists and Federal Reserve officials seem to believe that the US labour market spent most of last year weakening, that inflation is trending back to the Fed’s inflation target and that the central bank will continue cutting interest rates in 2026. On each of these three points, the conventional view is probably wrong. It would be a mistake for the Fed to cut rates again in 2026. Though the Fed thinks it has its foot on the economy’s brake pedal, it is actually hitting the gas. In part because of this, even if the central bank keeps the policy rate at its current level, it may need to raise rates in the second half of this year. My Financial Times column:

Everything you thought about the US labour market is wrong The conventional view has struggled to contend with robust economic growth

The rot on America’s political right runs deep. Perhaps because of their growing numbers and influence, some on the right apparently seem to believe that the political success of the Republican party requires playing footsie with racists, bigots and antisemites. What are conservatives to do? First, recognise that those of us who prioritise individual liberty, limited government, free markets, personal responsibility, economic opportunity, America’s “credal identity” and US global leadership are a faction on the political right, and not the whole of the right. Second, conservatives must push the broader political right to enforce ideological borders against extremism. Third, conservatives must resist the ascendant effort to redefine American identity as blood-and-soil nationalism. My Financial Times column.

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun Conservatism is a big tent, but there should be no room in it for those who deny the dignity of all human beings