Chronos Square Capital

Momentum is an elegant and wonderful dimension of risky assets. Demand ebbs and flows for a myriad reasons. When a name like META smokes through a downside momentum trigger, it’s an ‘easy’ (but expensive) BUY.
This was our largest momentum oscillation trade by quite a margin, partially due to the $96.95 per share net premium, which equates to almost $10 large per contract.
The trade?
ITM LEAP BuCD
Jan 27 $640 x Jan 26 $675 on Nov 3. Decent delta, theta positive trade. We entered with META at $658.24 and our short call lowered our trade B/E to $617.63, which was to alluring to pass up. The trade wouldn’t go negative delta until $828.62, so we had room on the upside. The ‘expert’ trading platform suggested a 64.79% probability of profit, while our model had it at 99.958%.
Results?
35-day hold - because meta just kept running, and our long did not have much open interest and the bid/ask was a bit wobbly (more on that with our next post on UBS, which we closed on 12/8 as well).
HPR of 23.49%, and an annROI of 118%.

Oh, one more thing. The Chartists would have isolated a beautiful Head & Shoulders formation (top circle/arrow) portending a hard slide in META and made 🏦 with puts. But, not our deal.

And, now for something a bit different. For those who grow bored with charts, graphs and pedantic narratives, here’s a simple table on which to chew, ruminate, or otherwise ponder. We took a pause from content after a late July post on a nice little Workday trade (a BuCD).
We gathered our 18 Q3 trades (initiated, and all closed by EOQ) and applied a few calculations to compare and contrast a few key parameters.
Observations?
1. 18-0. Like that
2. Bearish trades did well, but we still do not care for them.
3. Calendar anomaly model trades are (green) color-coded and were all bullish on, what our CAM suggested was, one of the better days this year to buy each stock. Seemed to work okay.
4. Bearish trades - get in, get the job done, don’t get stupid, get out. Period. Did okay.
5. Our trade of choice is a LEAP BuCD following a breach of a downside trigger isolated by our AI Momentum Oscillator. We like the results. We’d like more.

We paused trading after our final Q3 position closed and remain paused. We look to escalate activity in November. Stay tuned…